How effective are technical rules in predicting the 2008 global financial crisis? The case of the four Asian tigers

Kung, James J.; Lin, Wenbin; Chen, Hsiu-Li

doi:10.1080/13547860.2020.1712099

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Furthermore, they discovered that (1, 50, 1) and (1, 50, 0) rules of MA and TRB generated higher profits in the Pakistan stock market even after taking transaction costs into consideration. Contrary to the Pakistan market, Kung (2020) found that the MA and TRB rules maintained their predictive power in three Asian markets, namely Singapore, Korea and Hong Kong, during the global financial crisis.…”

Section: Literature Review Impact Of Covid-19mentioning

confidence: 67%

Effectiveness of Moving Average Rules During COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Malaysian Stock Market

2021

JEM

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The COVID-19 outbreak significantly impacted the Malaysian stock market. To some extent, the Movement Control Order (MCO) implemented in the country affected the financial performance of listed companies. In consequence investors were quite uncertain of future movements of the stock market. Effective analysis techniques are thus required to study the market movements. Investors shall rely on signals emitted by technical indicators for their investment decisions making. The aim of this study is to examine the performance of the MA rules in Malaysian stock market during the different stages of the MCO. The sample used comprised 30 largest market capitalization stocks listed in the stock market. The period of study spanned 2 January 2020 to 30 August 2020. More than 50% of the buy signals emitted by (5,60,0.01) were found linked with positive returns in the next trading day during the MCO and CMCO sub-period respectively. Conversely, 41.28% and 34.78% of the sell signals emitted by (5,50,0.01) during the respective MCO and CMCO sub-period were linked with negative returns. Among all the MA rules, (5,60,0.01) generated the highest average return of 0.88% during the MCO and CMCO sub-period. Importantly, MA rules, (5,60,0.01) also generated positive returns during the out-ofsample period. The findings of this study shall contribute to the existing literature related to technical analysis. Besides that, the findings will benefit investors the most, inducing them to generate returns or avoid losses during the critical COVID-19 pandemic period. Investors are recommended to take the signals emitted by MA rules as alternative reference for their investments. Lastly, the relevant organizations should conduct more seminars to inform and enhance analytical skill of their clients, particularly retail investors.

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Section: Literature Review Impact Of Covid-19mentioning

confidence: 67%

Effectiveness of Moving Average Rules During COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Malaysian Stock Market

2021

JEM

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“…Since 2005, several important studies on TA have been published, including: Hsu and Kuan (2005), Islam and Mohammed (2005), Chang et al (2006), Chen and Li (2006), Basher et al (2007), Loh (2007), Lento and Gradojevic (2007), Sehgal and Gupta (2007), McKenzie (2007), Tanaka-Yamawaki and Tokuoka (2007), Marshall et al (2008), Metghalchi et al (2008), Yen and Lee (2008), Balsara et al (2009), Zhou and Zhou (2009), Chong et al (2010), Creamer and Freund (2010), Chen et al (2011), Metghalchi et al (2012), Shynkevich (2012), Pätäri and Vilska (2014), Heng and Niblock (2014), Dbouk et al (2014) Hull and McGroarty (2014), Taylor (2014), Afego (2015), Ni et al (2015), Gerristen (2015), Urquhart et al (2015), Sobreiro et al (2016), Marshall et al (2017), Shynkevich (2017), Sabbaghi and Sabbaghi (2018), Ahmed and Hossain (2018), Metghalchi et al (2019), Jiang et al (2019) and Kung et al (2020).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trading rules and excess returns: evidence from Turkey

Metghalchi

Durmaz

Cloninger

et al. 2021

IMEFM

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Purpose This paper aims to investigate popular technical trading rules (TTRs) applied to the FTSE Turkish all-cap and small-cap indexes from September 23, 2003 to August 9, 2019 to determine rules that produce net excess returns over the Buy-and-Hold strategy (B&H). Design/methodology/approach Five TTRs, namely, simple moving average, relative strength index, moving average convergence divergence, momentum, and rate of change, are applied, singly (one indicator) and in combination (two indicators) for multiple time periods. Findings For the small-cap index, some TTRs – including the famous Golden Cross, when the 50-day moving average rises above 200-day moving average – produced net annual excess returns (NAERs) over the B&H strategy, for the entire period and each sub-period, after accounting for risk and transaction costs. Results were mixed for the large-cap index. The results support Cakici and Topyan (2013). Research limitations/implications This study investigates several indicators, but future studies should examine others, especially based on volume and price. Practical implications Investors in the FTSE Turkish small-cap index may use some trading rules to earn NAERs over the B&H strategy. Originality/value This research is important because it addresses a gap in the research by examining numerous TTRs in the Turkish stock market. Studies of TTRs in Turkey are scarce.

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Performance of Moving Average Trading Rules on BSE Sustainability Indices

Sharma,

Jaswal

2023

MJFA

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How effective are technical rules in predicting the 2008 global financial crisis? The case of the four Asian tigers

Cited by 3 publications

References 23 publications

Effectiveness of Moving Average Rules During COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Malaysian Stock Market

Effectiveness of Moving Average Rules During COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Malaysian Stock Market

Trading rules and excess returns: evidence from Turkey

Performance of Moving Average Trading Rules on BSE Sustainability Indices

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