How far to build it before they come? Analyzing the use of the <scp>F</scp>ield of <scp>D</scp>reams hypothesis in bull kelp restoration

Arroyo-Esquivel, Jorge; Baskett, Marissa L.; McPherson, Meredith L.; Hastings, Alan

doi:10.1002/eap.2850

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 93 publications

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“…This result reinforces the importance of coupling multiple sources of data, including in situ and remotely sensed, to predict future dynamics. It also highlights the need to develop models that incorporate shifts in ecological interactions, such as that between urchins and kelp (e.g., (Karatayev et al 2021, Arroyo-Esquivel et al 2023). While we expect that the environmental drivers identified in this study will vary in strength and spatial distribution with future climate change, we also assume that the functional relationships between kelp growth or loss and those drivers will remain constant in the near future (years to decades).…”

Section: Implication For Understanding Future Disturbances and Manage...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of spatio-temporal variability in a marine foundation species

Giraldo-Ospina,

Bell,

Carr

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Marine foundation species are critical for the structure and functioning of ecosystems and constitute the pillar of trophic chains while also providing a variety of ecosystem services. In recent decades many foundation species have declined in abundance, sometimes threatening their current geographical distribution. Kelps (Laminariales) are the primary foundation species in temperate coastal systems worldwide. Kelp ecosystems are notoriously variable and identifying the key factors that control the dynamics of kelp abundance is key to predicting the fate of kelp ecosystems under climatic change and informing management and conservation decisions such as forest restoration. Here, we usedin situdata from long-term monitoring programs across 1,350 km of coast spanning multiple biogeographic regions in the state of California (USA) to identify the major regional drivers of density of two dominant canopy-forming kelp species and to elucidate the spatial and temporal scales over which they operate. We used generalized additive models to identify the key drivers of density of two dominant kelp species (Nereocystis luetkeanaandMacrocystis pyrifera) across four ecological regions of the state of California (north, central, south-west and south-east) and for the past two decades (2004-2021). Our study identified that the dominant drivers of kelp density varied between regions and species but always included some combination of nitrate availability, wave energy and exposure, density of purple sea urchins, and temperature as the most important predictors explaining 63% of the variability of bull kelp in the north and central regions, and 45% and 51.4% of the variability in giant kelp for the central/south-west and south-east regions, respectively. These large-scale analyses infer that a combination of lower nutrient availability, changes in wave energy and exposure, and increases in temperature and purple sea urchin counts have contributed to the decline of kelp observed in the last decade. Understanding the drivers of kelp dynamics can be used to identify regions and periods of significant change and historical stability, ultimately informing resource management and conservation decisions such as site selection for kelp protection and restoration.Open research statementData (Giraldo-Ospina et al. 2023) are available in DataOne at doi:10.25494/P6/When_where_and_how_kelp_restoration_guidebook_2.

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Section: Implication For Understanding Future Disturbances and Manage...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of spatio-temporal variability in a marine foundation species

Giraldo-Ospina,

Bell,

Carr

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Multiple resiliency metrics reveal complementary drivers of ecosystem persistence: An application to kelp forest systems

Arroyo‐Esquivel,

Adams,

Gravem

et al. 2024

Ecology

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Human‐caused global change produces biotic and abiotic conditions that increase the uncertainty and risk of failure of restoration efforts. A focus of managing for resiliency, that is, the ability of the system to respond to disturbance, has the potential to reduce this uncertainty and risk. However, identifying what drives resiliency might depend on how one measures it. An example of a system where identifying how the drivers of different aspects of resiliency can inform restoration under climate change is the northern coast of California, where kelp experienced a decline in coverage of over 95% due to the combination of an intense marine heat wave and the functional extinction of the primary predator of the kelp‐grazing purple sea urchin, the sunflower sea star. Although restoration efforts focused on urchin removal and kelp reintroduction in this system are ongoing, the question of how to increase the resiliency of this system to future marine heat waves remains open. In this paper, we introduce a dynamical model that describes a tritrophic food chain of kelp, purple urchins, and a purple urchin predator such as the sunflower sea star. We run a global sensitivity analysis of three different resiliency metrics (recovery likelihood, recovery rate, and resistance to disturbance) of the kelp forest to identify their ecological drivers. We find that each metric depends the most on a unique set of drivers: Recovery likelihood depends the most on live and drift kelp production, recovery rate depends the most on urchin production and feedbacks that determine urchin grazing on live kelp, and resistance depends the most on feedbacks that determine predator consumption of urchins. Therefore, an understanding of the potential role of predator reintroduction or recovery in kelp systems relies on a comprehensive approach to measuring resiliency.

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Modeling grazer-mediated effects of demographic and material connectivity on giant kelp metapopulation dynamics

Detmer

2024

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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From dispersal-based metapopulations to meta-ecosystems that arise from flows of non-living materials, spatial connectivity is a major driver of population dynamics. One potentially important process is material transport between populations also linked by individual dispersal. Here, I explored material and demographic connectivity in metapopulations of giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a foundation species that produces both detritus and reproductive spores. Kelp detritus (drift) subsidizes grazers, helping maintain the kelp forest ecosystem state. Drift could potentially be exchanged among kelp patches, but this is less studied than spore dispersal. Therefore, I built an ordinary differential equation (ODE) model to investigate conditions under which drift and/or spore connectivity promotes the kelp forest state. I fit statistical models (generalized linear mixed models, GLMMs) to observational data and used the GLMM’s predictions to validate the ODE model. My results suggest kelp patch dynamics are best explained by connectivity of both drift and spores, and that the impacts of these forms of connectivity depend on local grazer (urchin) abundance. Both models predicted greater kelp persistence in well-connected patches across a range of urchin densities. These effects were largely driven by drift, which reduced grazing in recipient patches and thereby enhanced spore recruitment. While testing these predictions will require greater empirical quantification of interpatch drift transport, my findings indicate drift connectivity may be an important spatial process in kelp forest systems. More broadly, this work highlights the role of meta-ecosystem dynamics within a single ecosystem type, reinforcing the need to expand traditional metapopulation perspectives to consider multiple forms of spatial connectivity.

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How far to build it before they come? Analyzing the use of the Field of Dreams hypothesis in bull kelp restoration

Cited by 3 publications

References 93 publications

Drivers of spatio-temporal variability in a marine foundation species

Drivers of spatio-temporal variability in a marine foundation species

Multiple resiliency metrics reveal complementary drivers of ecosystem persistence: An application to kelp forest systems

Modeling grazer-mediated effects of demographic and material connectivity on giant kelp metapopulation dynamics

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