How have the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent measures impacted the Choice of Public Transportation Modes in Cities of Ethiopia, 2022?

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the impacts of the pandemic on the public transport mode choices in Ethiopia. Protection motivation theory and multinomial regression model were applied to estimate the mode choice behavior during the pandemic, compared to the pre-COVID period. This study draws an up-to-date picture of the COVID-19 implications, recent developments in transport mode choices, and gaps for future studies. Results indicated that public transport modes are the dominant modes before and during the pandemic but the choice of these modes declined during the pandemic by about 33 percent. Respondents placed more priority on pandemic-related risk, cleanliness, social physical distancing, good airflow, and travel cost when deciding mode choice during the pandemic, compared to the pre-COVID period. Pandemic-related factors, gender, income, distance of residences, and travel cost are the significant predictors of mode choice. Passengers are also likely to choose a lesser amount of public transport modes whereas more choice for alternative modes in the future of 18-24 months. The reasons for the anticipated mode choice variation are the passengers’ perception of travel risks, greater exposure to infections; shortage of infection prevention services; unaffordable service fees; disruption of services, being made out of work and working from home. Overall, the assumptions of protection motivation theory model could inform that COVID-19 pandemic is really impacting the mode choice behaviors mainly for the low-income, outer-city residents, and women. Thus, findings will imply policymaking to prepare pandemic-sensitive and adaptive transport systems during & post-pandemic period.