How High is Hispanic/Mexican Fertility in the United States? Immigration and Tempo Considerations

Abstract

In this article, I demonstrate that the apparently much higher fertility of Hispanic/Mexican women in the United States is almost exclusively the product of period estimates obtained for immigrant women and that period measures of immigrant fertility suffer from three serious sources of bias that together significantly overstate fertility levels: difficulties in estimating the size of immigrant groups; the tendency for migration to occur at a particular stage in life; and, most importantly, the tendency for women to have a birth soon after migration. When these sources of bias are taken into consideration, the fertility of native Hispanic/Mexican women is very close to replacement level. In addition, the completed fertility of immigrant women in the United States is dramatically lower than the level obtained from period calculations. Findings are consistent with classical theories of immigrant assimilation but are a striking departure from the patterns found in previous studies and published statistics. The main implication is that without a significant change in immigration levels, current projections based on the premise of high Hispanic fertility are likely to considerably exaggerate Hispanic population growth, its impact on the ethno-racial profile of the country, and its potential to counteract population aging.

Motherhood of foreign women in Lombardy

“…Parrado (2011) pointed out that careful period fertility measures have to be taken into consideration when looking at the fertility of migrants given the "difficulties in estimating the size of immigrant groups; the tendency for migration to occur at a particular stage in life; and, most importantly, the tendency for women to have a birth soon after migration". However, the present study also shows how differences in fertility between immigrant groups could have potentially different policy implications in terms of countering low fertility and population aging, especially considering the Italian model of fertility, to which immigrant women may be contributing.…”

“…Although most of the literature has focused on analyzing post-immigration fertility behaviors, in the present work we follow the women for their entire fertility period. The high period fertility of migrants in the host country has primarily been associated with rapid post-migration childbearing, as well as the coincidence of life course stage and age at migration (Mussino and Strozza 2012a;Parrado 2011;Toulemon 2004). In the present work we point to the importance of citizenship in this equation.…”

“…Several studies in Italy have focused on foreigners" impact on the period total fertility rate (TFR) (Strozza, Ferrara, and Labadia 2007), and a few studies have analyzed the determinants and influence of migration on the propensity to have children in Italy (Mussino et al 2012;Ortensi 2015). However, the international literature reveals a strong impact of the high risk of childbearing shortly after migration on period fertility (Alders 2000;Parrado 2011), thus establishing a link between reproductive behaviors and migratory transitions (Andersson 2004;Milewski 2007). Investigation of this interconnection in Italy has encountered difficulties.…”

Immigrant fertility in Sweden, 2000-2011: A descriptive note

“…Weaknesses of the TFR and its components as the basis for population projections are well known and have been highlighted recently for certain groups of immigrants to the United States by Parrado (2011). Our age-cumulated fertility levels have been constructed in analogy with the TFR, but they have different properties.…”

La maternidad adolescente en el contexto de la migración internacional: el caso de Costa Rica

“…A este período de interrupción puede seguirle un rebote para compensar la interrupción (Toulemon, 2004). En análisis transversales, este rebote de la fecundidad puede ser interpretado como un aumento de la fecundidad de las inmigrantes (Parrado, 2011). Finalmente, la hipótesis de legitimación se centra en que el comportamiento reproductivo de las mujeres inmigrantes, sobre todo de aquellas que se hallan en condiciones irregulares, puede verse influido por la percepción de que un hijo nacido en el país receptor podría forjar vínculos y facilitar el acceso a derechos (Bledsoe, 2004).…”