Background
Reasons for trends in venous thromboembolism (VTE)
incidence are uncertain.
Objectives
To determine VTE incidence trends and risk factor prevalence, and
estimate population-attributable risk (PAR) trends for each
risk factor.
Patients/Methods
In a population-based cohort study of all residents of Olmsted
County, MN, 1981â2010, annual incidence rates were calculated using
incident VTE cases as the numerator and age- and sex-specific Olmsted County
population estimates as the denominator. Poisson regression models were used
to assess the relationship of crude incidence rates to year of diagnosis,
age at diagnosis, and sex. Trends in annual prevalence of major VTE risk
factors prevalence were estimated using linear regression. Poisson
regression with time-dependent risk factors (person-years approach) was used
to model the entire population of Olmsted County and derive the PAR.
Results
The age- and sex-adjusted annual VTE incidence, 1981â2010,
did not change significantly. Over the time period, 1988â2010, the
prevalence of obesity, surgery, active cancer and leg paresis increased.
Patient age, hospitalization, surgery, cancer, trauma, leg paresis and
nursing home confinement jointly accounted for 79% of incident VTE;
obesity accounted for 33% of incident idiopathic VTE. The increasing
prevalence of obesity, cancer and surgery accounted in part for the
persistent VTE incidence. The PAR of active cancer and surgery,
1981â2010, signficiantly increased.
Conclusions
Almost 80% of incident VTE events are attributable to known
major VTE risk factors and one-third of incident idiopathic VTE events are
attributable to obesity. Increasing surgery PAR suggests that concurrent
efforts to prevent VTE may have been insufficient.