How Important Is the New Goods Margin in International Trade?

Abstract

ABSTRACT_____________________________________________________________We propose a methodology for studying changes in bilateral commodity trade due to goods not exported previously or exported only in small quantities. Using a panel of 1,900 country pairs, we find that increased trade of these "least-traded goods" is an important factor in trade growth. This extensive margin accounts for 10 percent of the growth in trade for NAFTA country pairs, for example, and 26 percent in trade between the United States and Chile, China, and Korea. Looking at country pairs with no major trade policy change or structural change, however, we find little change in the extensive margin.

New exports from emerging markets: Do followers benefit from pioneers?

“…After applying all the lters 23 , we rst divide our data productwise in two groups: new products and existing or old products (the two columns of 21 The change in coding as a problem to identify new products has been remarked by Kehoe and Ruhl (2009) 23 For a detailed de nition and analysis of the lters, please see the Appendix.…”

“…As reported by Kehoe and Ruhl (2009), going beyond this date would create many new products that emerge only for a year due to the new classi cation. On the other hand, we believe the 5 year window is appropriate because if we look at the delay between the entrance of the pioneer and Second, we classify rms, according to the sequence of entry in a product, as pioneers or followers.…”

“…The emergence of new export products has been associated with economic accelerations in lessdeveloped economies (Lucas, 1993;Kehoe and Ruhl, 2009;Amsden, 1992). In this context, it is relevant to explore whether the process of new product discovery is fully internalized by rms or, in contrast, displays some type of external economies.…”

EU Enlargement and the New Goods Margin in Austrian Trade: Comment

“…Although Dalton correctly applied the Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) methodology with Comext trade data, he overlooked the implicit requirement of using a consistent product classification. This problem leads to significant overestimation of the trade share of the least traded goods.…”

International Trade and Intertemporal Substitution

“…Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) measure changes in the extensive margin and find that it plays little role outside of significant structural transformations or trade liberalization.…”