How is China’s energy security affected by exogenous shocks? Evidence of China–US trade dispute and COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The trade dispute between China and the United States (US) since 2018 and the global COVID-19 pandemic since 2020 has significantly impacted China’s economic development. As China’s energy sources heavily depend on imports, its economic viability is becoming more and more risky. This study proposes a novel conceptual framework, involving macroeconomic, industrial and geopolitical factors, to evaluate China’s energy security as a major player in the trade dispute. This study also provides a comprehensive strategy for policymakers to make better decisions on reforming renewable energy patterns to guarantee energy security and achieve geopolitical advantages. The PESTEL (political, economic, social, technical, environmental and legislative) and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analytical methods are applied to evaluate the factors and attributes of China’s energy development and energy security in the current background. The China-US bipartite game reciprocity model and the QSPM (Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix) analysis are conducted to assess which energy security strategy and policy are more suitable to deal with China-US trade dispute. To enhance energy security, China should diversify its energy supply chain, develop new sources of energy supply, advance the shale gas technology, popularise cleaner power-generation plants, increase nuclear-energy safety, introduce energy-conservation measures, promote alternative-energy vehicles, engage in international energy diplomacy, and rebuild international energy transaction and settlement systems.

The new era in the continuum of China and Iraq's relationship

“…Since 2003, China has gradually increased its economic engagement with Iraq (see Table 1). China is diversifying its energy supply chains and suppliers -China has reduced its reliance on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) oil from 65 percent in 2011 to 50 percent in 2021 (Liu et al, 2021;Workman, 2022). Nonetheless, Iraq is gradually climbing the ranking of China's major energy suppliers.…”

The greenhouse gas emissions reduction co-benefit of end-of-life electric vehicle battery treatment strategies

“…China's reliance on imports for these resources is presently pronounced, with external dependencies in 2019 reaching 78.5% for lithium, 91.5% for nickel, 97.1% for cobalt, and 91.0% for manganese [10] . Concurrently, the looming specter of supply disruption resulting from geopolitical, economic, and commercial competition in source countries underscores the imperative of resource recycling to ensure the security of supply for critical metals within China's burgeoning automotive industry [11,12] . This strategic pursuit assumes paramount significance in the context of safeguarding China's automotive metal resources [13] .…”

Environmental Consequences of Potential Strategies for China to Prepare for Natural Gas Import Disruptions

“…Unanticipated gas disruptions may lead to cascading problems in China’s national economy, societal peace, and political stability. ,, As a result, China’s top leadership has called for national oil and gas companies to significantly increase domestic production to counteract the increasing external dependence that may impede China’s sustainable socioeconomic development. , Therefore, it is of critical importance for China to explore potential self-reliant planning strategies, as instructed by President Xi’s directive, so as to prepare for potential import disruptions. That is, China should prepare to satisfy the predisturbance end-use energy service demand via upgrading its domestic energy system.…”

“…20 Intensifying international relations are further aggravating China's concerns about international natural gas supply security and hence the security of its national economy. 22,23 For example, the U.S.−China trade war suggests that the relationship between these two countries is worsening, and "tougher" policies toward China that view it as an emerging opponent tend to garner bipartisan support in the U.S. 22 International suppliers of natural gas to China, such as the U.S. and its allies, may threaten China's natural gas supply either by directly banning exports to China or threatening China's oil and natural gas transportation lines. 22 Unanticipated gas disruptions may lead to cascading problems in China's national economy, societal peace, and political stability.…”

“…22,23 For example, the U.S.−China trade war suggests that the relationship between these two countries is worsening, and "tougher" policies toward China that view it as an emerging opponent tend to garner bipartisan support in the U.S. 22 International suppliers of natural gas to China, such as the U.S. and its allies, may threaten China's natural gas supply either by directly banning exports to China or threatening China's oil and natural gas transportation lines. 22 Unanticipated gas disruptions may lead to cascading problems in China's national economy, societal peace, and political stability. 18,20,22 As a result, China's top leadership has called for national oil and gas companies to significantly increase domestic production to counteract the increasing external dependence that may impede China's sustainable socioeconomic development.…”