How Long Can the MJO be Predicted During the Combined Phases of ENSO and QBO?

Mengist, Chalachew Kindie; Seo, Kyong‐Hwan

doi:10.1029/2022gl097752

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…These extreme events, however, are generally more predictable when the MJO is present as the remote precursor 74 . MJO-related predictability is found to be increased by up to 8 days in La Niña winters compared to El Niño winters because of the longer persistence of the MJO 75 , which again suggests a potential for improving S2S prediction of extreme events by considering both the MJO and ENSO impacts. Results in our study further suggest that compound extremes are largely influenced by both MJO and ENSO, and we encourage future studies to investigate how their prediction skills change when coupled with these more regular evolving lowerfrequency climate modes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Association of western US compound hydrometeorological extremes with Madden-Julian oscillation and ENSO interaction

Wang,

DeFlorio,

Gershunov

et al. 2024

Commun Earth Environ

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Extreme weather and climate events can have substantial impacts on society and the environment. Compound extremes (two or more extreme events occurring simultaneously or successively) may exert even larger impacts than individual events. Here we examine physical drivers behind variability in hydrometeorological (precipitation and temperature) compound extremes on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales. Observational evidence presented here through composite analysis indicates that compound extreme frequency is linked to the Madden-Julian oscillation, a unique type of organized tropical convection varying primarily on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales. The linkage between Madden-Julian oscillation and compound extremes is largely dependent on ENSO phases, which can be seen through different magnitudes or changes in sign of the canonical relationship conditioned on ENSO states. Similarly, the Madden-Julian oscillation can interrupt the canonical ENSO-compound extreme relationship. Our results suggest a potential route to improve subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of western US compound extremes by considering the combined effect of both Madden-Julian oscillation and ENSO.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Association of western US compound hydrometeorological extremes with Madden-Julian oscillation and ENSO interaction

Wang,

DeFlorio,

Gershunov

et al. 2024

Commun Earth Environ

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“…Most forecast models have the opposite problem of a weaker and slower MJO than observed, especially over the Western Pacific, which would likely result in an underestimation of predictability. In addition, we use prescribed sea surface temperatures, which simplifies our interpretation of the results and reduces computational expense, but restricts our understanding of how MJO predictability is influenced by interactions with different ENSO background states (Mengist & Seo, 2022). Previous studies have shown how including a coupled ocean component helps drive MJO propagation and can increase predictability of precipitation and OLR after 10 days (Pegion & Kirtman, 2008).…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Predictability of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in a Superparameterized Model

Weidman,

Kuang

2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a promising target for improving sub‐seasonal weather forecasts. Current forecast models struggle to simulate the MJO due to imperfect convective parameterizations and mean state biases, degrading their forecast skill. Previous studies have estimated a potential MJO predictability 5–15 days higher than current forecast skill, but these estimates also use models with parameterized convection. We perform a perfect‐model predictability experiment using a superparameterized global model in which the convective parameterization is replaced by a cloud resolving model. We add a second “silent” cloud resolving component to the control simulation that independently calculates convective‐scale processes using the same large‐scale forcings. The second set of convective states are used to initialize forecasts, representing uncertainty on the convective scale. We find a potential predictability of the MJO of 35–40 days in boreal winter using a single‐member ensemble forecast.

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“…In this study, we applied the improved‐LDA method to identify the analogs. Numerous studies have successfully employed the NLLE method to investigate the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic systems (Ding et al., 2008; He et al., 2021; Hou et al., 2018; Hou, Li, Ding, et al, 2022; Li et al., 2018; Mengist & Seo, 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asymmetric Influences of ENSO Phases on the Predictability of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature

Hou,

Li,

Diao

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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The North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) has a profound climatic influence. The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly impacts the North Pacific SST; however, the influence of the distinct phases of ENSO on SST predictability remains unclear. To overcome the model limitations, this study assessed SST predictability under diverse ENSO phases using reanalysis. The predictability limit of the North Pacific SST under La Niña (8.4 months) is longer than that under Neutral (5.9 months) and El Niño (5.5 months) conditions, which unveils asymmetry. This asymmetry mirrors contemporary multimodal prediction skills. Error growth dynamics reveal La Niña's robust signal strength with a slow error growth rate, in contrast to El Niño's weaker signal and faster error growth. There exhibits intermediate signal strength and elevated error growth in Neutral condition. Physically, predictability signal strength aligns with SST variability, whereas the error growth rate correlates with atmospheric‐ocean heating anomalies. La Niña, which induces positive heating anomalies, minimizes the impact of atmospheric noise, resulting in lower error growth. The result is beneficial for improving North Pacific SST predictions.

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How Long Can the MJO be Predicted During the Combined Phases of ENSO and QBO?

Cited by 7 publications

References 43 publications

Association of western US compound hydrometeorological extremes with Madden-Julian oscillation and ENSO interaction

Association of western US compound hydrometeorological extremes with Madden-Julian oscillation and ENSO interaction

Potential Predictability of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in a Superparameterized Model

Asymmetric Influences of ENSO Phases on the Predictability of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature

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