How long do population level field experiments need to be? Utilising data from the 40‐year‐old LTER network

Cusser, Sarah; Helms, Jackson A.; Bahlai, Christie A.; Haddad, Nick M.

doi:10.1111/ele.13710

Cited by 49 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…While the former is widely studied by means of SDMs, experimentally testing plant performance with transplant experiments beyond their ranges is challenging, especially for species with low demographic rates. For these species, demographic responses to the biotic and abiotic environment can often only be evaluated after at least one to few decades (Cusser et al, 2021), but such experiments are extremely rare. As one of these rare cases, our transplant experiment reported population survival rates of bluebell transplanted 45 km beyond its natural range of 44% after 45 years and 41% after 60 years.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Species distribution models and a 60‐year‐old transplant experiment reveal inhibited forest plant range shifts under climate change

Sanczuk

Lombaerde

Haesen

et al. 2022

Journal of Biogeography

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Aim: Climate change causes species to shift their distributions. Individual species, however, greatly vary in their capacity to track the macroclimatic temperature increase due to differences in demography and dispersal. To better predict range shifts to climate change we need a complementary integration of long-term empirical data and predictive modelling.Location: Belgium and North-West Europe.Taxon: Hyacinthoides non-scripta¸ forest understorey plants. Methods:Complementing species distribution models with demographic data from an exceptional 60-year-old over-the-range-edge transplant experiment measured not less than 45 and 60 years after installation, we evaluated the long-term consequences of climate change on one of the most emblematic but also among the slowest colonizing plant species of European forests, bluebell Hyacinthoides non-scripta. Results:We found bluebell able to establish viable populations beyond its natural range. These results were confirmed by the SDM, showing that bluebell's potential range is considerably larger than its current range. Colonization rates of only 2 m century −1 were observed in the transplanted populations. Beyond bluebell's current range, we observed decreasing trends in population growth rates over the past 15 years. By the end of the 21st century, substantial decreases in the southern parts of bluebell's range were predicted. Main conclusions:Based on empirical and modelling results, we expect serious population declines in large parts of its current natural distribution of bluebell. Although the species is able to establish viable populations beyond the natural range edge, slow demography and local colonization rates four orders of magnitude lower than the velocity of climate change make fast enough range shifts virtually impossible in this species.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Species distribution models and a 60‐year‐old transplant experiment reveal inhibited forest plant range shifts under climate change

Sanczuk

Lombaerde

Haesen

et al. 2022

Journal of Biogeography

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“…Environmental drivers work over longer time periods, and therefore long‐term data are critically needed (de Bello et al., 2020; Cusser et al., 2021; Hollister et al., 2005; Luo et al., 2011). In longer‐term studies, the effect of year‐to‐year variation is reduced, directional changes become clearer and slow responses of species with long generation times and slow life cycles can become visible (de Bello et al., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid thermophilization of understorey plant communities in a 9 year‐long temperate forest experiment

et al. 2021

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The vast majority of plant biodiversity associated with temperate forests is harboured by the understorey layer. This layer also plays crucial roles in ecosystem functions such as tree regeneration, nutrient cycling and carbon dynamics. Research using space‐for‐time substitutions and resurveys of vegetation plots has shown that climate warming, changes in forest management and resource availability are key determinants of forest understorey biodiversity change and functioning. However, long‐term experiments are needed to better unravel their complex interactive effects. Here we study the influence of nearly a decade of experimental warming, light addition using fluorescent tubes (as a proxy for management‐driven changes in forest‐floor light levels) and nitrogen input on understorey plant communities of temperate broadleaved forest. Plant communities shifted towards a higher dominance of warm‐adapted species, a process referred to as thermophilization. We detected a marked community shift in all treatments including the control plots, reflecting ongoing ambient environmental changes. This reordering over time was greater than the shift induced by the treatments. Thermophilization was, however, greatest when temperature and/or light availability were enhanced. Communities were also taller in response to warming and increased light availability. Synthesis. Our experiment provides important insights into 9 years of vegetation changes in a temperate forest and how canopy density and forest management can be adapted to limit thermophilization of forest understorey biodiversity under climate change. [Correction added on 27 April 2021, after first online publication: The Synthesis section in the abstract has been updated to reflect the original text supplied.]

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“…blinding; Schulz et al 2002) design principles not yet widely adopted in ecological field experiments. Other methodological areas not considered here, such as suitability of statistical analyses, incorporating measurement error, role of audit, utility of response variables, code sharing and data accessibility (Salo et al 2010; Fanelli 2012; Tressoldi et al 2013; Fraser et al 2018; Mason et al 2018; Cusser et al 2021; Filazzola and Cahill 2021), also underpin the utility and robustness of publications. Incorporating measurement error, for example, can alter conclusions drawn from biodiversity monitoring (Mason et al 2018).…”

Section: Concluding Commentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Robustness of field studies evaluating biodiversity responses to invasive species management in New Zealand

Allen

Forsyth

MacKenzie

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Benefits of invasive species management for terrestrial biodiversity are widely expected and promoted in New Zealand. Evidence for this is presented in policy and scientific reviews of the literature, but the robustness and repeatability of the underpinning evidence-base remains poorly understood. We evaluated the design of field-based studies assessing biodiversity responses to invasive species management in 155 peer-reviewed articles published across 46 journals from 2010 - 2019. Each study was assessed against nine principles of experimental design, covering robustness of sampling and avoidance of bias. These principles are important in New Zealand to detect treatment effects from environmental variability driven by underlying gradients such as soil fertility, climate and disturbance. Fifty two percent of studies defined a sampling universe and 68% of studies specified the treatment. Whereas, 54%, 74%, and 50% of studies did not utilise replication, representatively sample the universe, or quantify invasive species, respectively. Ninety five percent of studies quantified biodiversity responses, although a high proportion of these did not representatively sample replicates. Initial conditions and accounting for effects of experimental implementation were not utilised in 57% and 84% of studies respectively. No studies avoided observer/analyst bias using blinding methods, despite this being widely adopted in other fields. Ordinal logistic regression showed these principles varied in how robustly they were applied among categories of biodiversity responses and invasive species. Our findings suggest that greater attention to experimental design principles is desirable: supported by researchers, funding agencies, reviewers, and journal editors. Greater resources is not necessarily a solution to these design issues. Undertaking fewer studies, that are individually more expensive because they better adhere to experimental design principles, is one alternative. Our intent in this article is to improve the robustness of future field studies for at least some principles. Robust designs have enduring value, reduce uncertainty and increase our understanding of when, where and how often the impacts of invasive species on biodiversity are indeed reversible.

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How long do population level field experiments need to be? Utilising data from the 40‐year‐old LTER network

Cited by 49 publications

References 80 publications

Species distribution models and a 60‐year‐old transplant experiment reveal inhibited forest plant range shifts under climate change

Species distribution models and a 60‐year‐old transplant experiment reveal inhibited forest plant range shifts under climate change

Rapid thermophilization of understorey plant communities in a 9 year‐long temperate forest experiment

Robustness of field studies evaluating biodiversity responses to invasive species management in New Zealand

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