How many are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease? Rapid global, regional and national estimates for 2020

Clark, Andrew; Jit, Mark; Warren‐Gash, Charlotte; Guthrie, Bruce; Wang, Haoxiang; Mercer, Stewart W; Sanderson, Colin; McKee, Martin; Troeger, Christopher; Ong, Kanyin I; Checchi, Francesco; Perel, Pablo; Joseph, Sarah; Gibbs, Hamish; Banerjee, Amitava; Eggo, Rosalind M

doi:10.1101/2020.04.18.20064774

Cited by 73 publications

(91 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…None of the BioRxiv posts were relevant to our topic. Of the 137 pre‐prints in MedRxiv, 23 nonduplicate studies included information on asthma, 29‐51 but none of them included specific information in children.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asthma and COVID‐19 in children: A systematic review and call for data

Castro-Rodriguez

Forno

2020

Pediatric Pulmonology

108

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Rationale Whether asthma constitutes a risk factor for coronavirus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) is unclear. Here, we aimed to assess whether asthma, the most common chronic disease in children, is associated with higher COVID‐19 risk or severity in pediatric populations. Methods We performed a systematic literature search in three stages: first, we reviewed PubMed, EMBASE, and CINAHL for systematic reviews of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) and COVID‐19 in pediatric populations, and reviewed their primary articles; second, we searched PubMed for studies on COVID‐19 or SARS‐CoV‐2 and asthma/wheeze, and evaluated whether the resulting studies included pediatric populations; third, we repeated the second search in http://BioRxiv.org and http://MedRxiv.org to find pre‐prints that may have information on pediatric asthma. Results In the first search, eight systematic reviews were found, of which five were done in pediatric populations; none of the 67 primary studies included data on pediatric asthma as a comorbidity for COVID‐19. In the second search, we found 34 results in PubMed, of which five reported asthma in adults, but none included data on children. In the third search, 25 pre‐prints in MedRxiv included data on asthma, but none on children. We found one report by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stating that 40/345 (~11.5%) children with data on chronic conditions had “chronic lung diseases including asthma,” and one from a tertiary hospital in New York that reported asthma in 11/46 (~23.9%) children hospitalized for COVID‐19. Conclusion There is scarcely any data on whether childhood asthma (or other pediatric respiratory diseases) constitute risk factors for SARS‐CoV‐2 infection or COVID‐19 severity. Studies are needed that go beyond counting the number of cases in the pediatric age range.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asthma and COVID‐19 in children: A systematic review and call for data

Castro-Rodriguez

Forno

2020

Pediatric Pulmonology

108

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“…As knowledge of effective treatments changes, the pathways, staff, beds and equipment required are also likely to affect the duration and level of care needed. Moreover, patient characteristics -such as age and comorbidities -impact disease severity [8,[12][13][14] and are likely to influence LoS. If differences are significant then capacity planning may need to account for these characteristics to provide accurate predictions of the number of beds required at each level of care.…”

Section: (Which Was Not Certified By Peer Review)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…4. The median and IQR for general hospital was estimated to be 14(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19) for China and 5 (3-9) excluding China. This was also repeated for ICU LoS, with a median and IQR 8 (5-13) for China and 7 (4-11) outside China.…”

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confidence: 99%

COVID-19 length of hospital stay: a systematic review and data synthesis

Rees

Nightingale

Jafari

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has placed an unprecedented strain on health systems, with rapidly increasing demand for healthcare in hospitals and intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. As the pandemic escalates, determining the resulting needs for healthcare resources (beds, staff, equipment) has become a key priority for many countries. Projecting future demand requires estimates of how long patients with COVID-19 need different levels of hospital care. Methods: We performed a systematic review to gather data on length of stay (LoS) of patients with COVID-19 in hospital and in ICU. We subsequently developed a method to generate LoS distributions which combines summary statistics reported in multiple studies, accounting for differences in sample sizes. Applying this approach we provide distributions for general hospital and ICU LoS from studies in China and elsewhere, for use by the community. Results: We identified 52 studies, the majority from China (46/52). Median hospital LoS ranged from 4 to 53 days within China, and 4 to 21 days outside of China, across 45 studies. ICU LoS was reported by eight studies -four each within and outside China -with median values ranging from 6 to 12 and 4 to 19 days, respectively. Our summary distributions have a median hospital LoS of 14 (IQR: 10-19) days for China, compared with 5 (IQR: 3-9) days outside of China. For ICU, the summary distributions are more similar (median (IQR) of 8 (5-13) days for China and 7 (4-11) days outside of China). There was a visible difference by discharge status, with patients who were discharged alive having longer LoS than those who died during their admission, but no trend associated with study date. Conclusion: Patients with COVID-19 in China appeared to remain in hospital for longer than elsewhere. This may be explained by differences in criteria for admission and discharge between countries, and different timing within the pandemic. In the absence of local data, the combined summary LoS distributions provided here can be used to model bed demands for contingency planning and then updated, with the novel method presented here, as more studies with aggregated statistics emerge outside China.

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“…None of the BioRxiv posts were relevant to our topic. Of the 86 pre-prints in MedRxiv, 14 non-duplicate studies included information on asthma [27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40], but none of them included specific information in children.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asthma and COVID-19 in children – a systematic review and call for data

Castro-Rodriguez

Forno

2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Rationale:Whether asthma constitutes a risk factor for COVID-19 is unclear. Methods:We performed a systematic literature search in three stages: First, we reviewed PubMed, EMBASE and CINAHL for systematic reviews of SARS-CoC-2 and COVID-19 in pediatric populations, and reviewed their primary articles; next, we searched PubMed for studies on COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 and asthma/wheeze, and evaluated whether the resulting studies included pediatric populations; lastly, we repeated the second search in BioRxiv.org and MedRxiv.org to find pre-prints that may have information on pediatric asthma. Results:In the first search, eight systematic reviews were found, of which five were done in pediatric population; after reviewing 67 primary studies we found no data on pediatric asthma as a comorbidity for COVID-19. In the second search, we found 25 results in PubMed, of which five reported asthma in adults, but none included data on children. In the third search, 14 preprints in MedRxiv were identified with data on asthma, but again none with pediatric data. We found only one report by the U.S. CDC stating that 40/345 (~11.5%) children with data on chronic conditions had "chronic lung diseases including asthma". Conclusion:There is scarcely any data on whether childhood asthma (or other pediatric respiratory diseases) constitute risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 severity. Studies are needed that go beyond counting the number of cases in the pediatric age range.

show abstract

How many are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease? Rapid global, regional and national estimates for 2020

Cited by 73 publications

References 26 publications

Asthma and COVID‐19 in children: A systematic review and call for data

Asthma and COVID‐19 in children: A systematic review and call for data

COVID-19 length of hospital stay: a systematic review and data synthesis

Asthma and COVID-19 in children – a systematic review and call for data

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