How Many Atheists Are There?

Abstract

One crucible for theories of religion is their ability to predict and explain patterns of belief and disbelief. Yet, religious nonbelief is often heavily stigmatized, potentially leading many atheists to refrain from outing themselves even in anonymous polls. We used the unmatched count technique and Bayesian estimation to indirectly estimate atheist prevalence in two nationally representative samples of 2000 U.S. adults apiece.Widely-cited telephone polls (e.g., Gallup, Pew) suggest USA atheist prevalence of only 3-11%. In contrast, our most credible indirect estimate is 26% (albeit with considerable estimate and method uncertainty). Our data and model predict that atheist prevalence exceeds 11% with greater than .99 probability, and exceeds 20% with roughly .8 probability. Prevalence estimates of 11% were even less credible than estimates of 40%, and all intermediate estimates were more credible. Some popular theoretical approaches to religious cognition may require heavy revision to accommodate actual levels of religious disbelief.Keywords: religion; atheism; social desirability; stigma; Bayesian estimation How many atheists are there? 3 How many atheists are there?I am, and I wish I weren't. Aldous Huxley, Brave New WorldReligion is a core aspect of human nature, yet a comprehensive understanding of religion must also accommodate religious disbelief. Various models seek to explain commonalities in religious cognition (e.g., Boyer, 2008) and the possible adaptive benefits of religious beliefs and practices (e.g., Norenzayan et al., 2014). These models have advanced the naturalistic science of religion, one key challenge in interdisciplinary, consilient approaches to human nature (Wilson, 1999). The scientific success of theories of religion partially hinges on the degree to which they successfully predict and explain the distribution of belief and disbelief. The study of atheists-merely people who disbelieve or lack belief in the existence of God or gods 1 -is thus a central testing ground for basic theory on the origins of religious and supernatural beliefs (Norenzayan & Gervais, 2013). Unfortunately, unbiased answers to some of the most elementary questions regarding belief and disbelief are currently unavailable. Such basic questions as: How many atheists are there?1 As a terminological aside, throughout this paper we use the term "atheist" to refer to people who disbelieve or lack belief in the existence of a god or gods. This definition is standard in the psychology, sociology, and philosophy of religion. Furthermore, it is the definition of "atheist" adopted by the Oxford English Dictionary. Operationally, we thus define people as atheists if they do not indicate belief in a god or gods. We focused on binary classification of atheists not because we necessarily view religious belief as a psychologically binary phenomenon, but rather for direct comparability with existing polling data utilizing binary measurements of this complex construct.How many atheists are there? 4Existing global atheism est...

Stigmatized beliefs: Conspiracy theories, anticipated negative evaluation of the self, and fear of social exclusion

“…According to Goffman (), a stigma is “an attribute that extensively discredits an individual” (p. 3). These attributes, such as skin color (Pinel, Warner, & Chua, ), sexual orientation (Lewis, Derlega, Griffin, & Krowinski, ), physical or mental disabilities (Crandall & Moriarty, ; Rüsch, Angermeyer, & Corrigan, ), or religious (non)belief (Gervais & Najle, ; Nugier et al., ; Pachankis et al., ) may be of various kinds, as a function of the social context (Major, ). A great deal of research has been devoted to the topic of stigma (Link & Phelan, ; Major & O'Brien, ), including the study of its nature (e.g., the different characteristics of stigma such as controllability, concealability, and dangerousness; Frable, ; Major, ; Quinn, ), its origins (Kurzban & Leary, ), and its social‐psychological consequences (Major & O'Brien, ).…”

Profiling Atheist World Views in Different Cultural Contexts: Developmental Trajectories and Accounts

“…In the context of the U.S., the inclination to self-identify as "atheist" may be influenced by perceived prejudice against atheism. Gervais and Najle (2018) conclude atheism in the U.S. may be higher than stated in previous polls, reporting an estimate of 26% who identify as atheist when using an indirect measure of atheism. Earlier research by Gervais and an international team of researchers documents antiatheist prejudice worldwide, in varying degrees, even among atheists (Gervais et al, 2017).…”

Diverging Perceptions of Personal Moral Values and the Values of One's Religious Group

“…Some participants in our studies identified themselves as ”Christian,” but were not able to identify a specific denomination of the religion to which they adhere. Additionally, it is likely that a substantial proportion of atheist participants indicated being “agnostic” or “nonreligious,” rather than identifying as “atheist,” as predicted by Gervais and Najle (). Among those who are not religious, there are differences between atheists, agnostics, nonbelievers who attend services or culturally identify with a dominant religion, and nonbelievers who do not attend services (Baker and Smith ).…”

“…This approach is also informed by recent research on nonreligious identification that suggests that the number of individuals identifying as “atheist” on self‐report measures is lower than the actual number of atheists. Gervais and Najle () used the unmatched count technique (UCT; Dalton, Wimbush, and Daily ), a technique used to estimate base rates for socially sensitive information, to obtain an indirect measure of atheist prevalence. Using UCT, it was estimated that approximately one‐third of atheists may not self‐report as “atheist” in anonymous surveys.…”