How many children does Serbia need?

Abstract

The work is an attempt to determine basic quantities for introducing a family planning program which will be aiming at a replacement level. In order to do that census year 2002 was taken as an example for calculation. Total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman was considered as necessary level and that means Serbia needs 105.000 newborns each year. In accordance with that level a set of five age specific fertility rates (ASFR) were established in order to find appropriate model of reproductive behavior for Serbia. The sets are established in the following manner: multiplying ASFR by quotient between necessary and real number of newborns, by the data from the last year when fertility was large enough to provide for replacement level (with mortality level from 2002), by linear interpolation between two ASFR models and by Brass fertility polynomial. All five different models of age specific fertility rates suggest that there is no ideal distribution of ASFR. Also parity progression from zero to first, from first to second, and from second to third child is determined. The main reason for below replacement level in Serbia is small parity progression from second to third child. So, rearing the third child should be the most stimulated in every family planning program, as long as every second women have them by the end of her reproductive life span

Could Refugees Have a Significant Impact on the Future Demographic Change of Serbia?

“…Due to a very low total fertility level of the actual Serbian population, we used this pure hypothetical variant to show the effect of the negative population momentum (Lutz and Skirbekk, 2005). Given the actual level of mortality, total fertility rate of the variant is assumed to be approximately 2.1 (Djurdjev, 2004; United Nations, 2004).…”

Transition to parenthood: New insights into socio-psychological costs of childbearing

“…Gender issues, especially gender symmetry as an important societal precondition of changed fertility behaviour (low and delayed) and marital/partnership one (diversification of unions) have been given strong emphasis in second demographic transition theory (SDT) (Lesthaeghe, 2010). Furthermore, several social and demographic determinants have brought about second demographic transition and shrinking of families (EC, 2006: 1) rise of individualism; 2) increased share of women in paid work; 3) low level of desired and actual fertility altogether with its vast postponement; 4) decrease of quantum of live births due to stopping at parity one or two (Rašević, 2015;Frejka, 2008;Đurđev, 2004). Low fertility also comes out because of: fall in fecundity due to delay of pregnancies and rise of secondary infertility; high economic and opportunity costs of raising children; increased divorce and union dissolution; pluralization of life styles, personal freedoms, multiplication of chances and choices, reflexive biographies and expansion diversified of styles for self-realization outside family.…”

Contemporary problems in studying population of Vojvodina Province

“…When the borders were changed in 1949 six settlements from the territory of Vojvodina (Ov~a, Bor~a, Be`anija, Besni Fok, Padinska Skela and Glogoljski rit) with 10,482 inhabitants, according to the 1948 census, were affiliated into the territory of Serbia outside the province. Few years later, in 1955, after an additional change in borders, nine settlements from the territory of Vojvodina (Batajnica, Be~men, Boljevci, Dobanovci, Jakovo, Petrov~i}, Progar, Sur~in and Ugrinovci) with 23,086 inhabitants (according to 1953 census) were affiliated into the territory of Serbia while six settlements (Ma~vanska Mitrovica, No}aj, Sala{ No}ajski, Radenkovi}, Ravnje and Zasavica) were detached from its territory with altogether 10,012 inhabitants according to 1953 census (Djurdjev 2001).…”