How Mechanization Shapes Coups

Abstract

Civil-military relations are characterized by a fundamental dilemma. To lower coup risk, leaders frequently empower the military, which satisfies the armed forces with the status quo and enables them to fight against threats challenging the civilian leadership. Simultaneously, a too powerful military itself constitutes a potential threat that is capable of overthrowing the government. Our research adds to this debate by examining the impact of mechanization, that is, the degree to which militaries rely on armored vehicles relative to manpower, on coup risk. We discuss several (opposing) mechanisms before developing the theoretical expectation that higher levels of mechanization should lower the likelihood of a coup due to the increased costs of coup execution. Empirical evidence strongly supports this claim and, thus, contributes to our understanding of the emergence of coups as an essential breakdown of civil-military relations, while adding to the debate surrounding the many trade-offs leaders face when coup-proofing their regimes.

Rage and the Machines? Force Mechanization and Violence against Civilians

“…For the empirical tests, I combine data on one-sided violence against civilians from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP; Eck and Hultman 2007 ;Pettersson et al 2021 ) with global data on state forces' extent of mechanization ( Sechser and Saunders 2010 ;Choulis et al 2023 ). I use the conflict dyad-year as unit of observation.…”

“…4 Following Sechser and Saunders (2010) , mechanization is measured by the number of armored fighting vehicles per one hundred ground soldiers. I obtain these data from Choulis et al (2023) , who extend Sechser and Saunders' original data collection beyond 2001. Observations of this variable are available in odd-numbered years only due to mechanization levels changing slowly; I follow existing studies by linearly interpolating this variable and log-transforming it 5 (see Sechser and Saunders 2010 ;Caverley and Sechser 2017 ;Choulis et al 2023 ).…”

“…2 On the other hand, there is a reason that governments employ mechanized forces to defeat insurgents. These forces, outfitted with major conventional weapons that can simultaneously withstand substantial enemy firepower and respond with their heavy on-board armaments, can inflict severe costs on an opponent while minimizing their own losses (see, e.g., Choulis et al 2023 ). And their mobility also allows them to rapidly deploy to areas attacked by rebels.…”