How Much Do Exports Matter for China's Growth?

Abstract

The sharp deceleration in China's economic growth in recent months, as the economy has been weighed down by the collapse in external demand, brought to the fore yet again the question of how important exports are in affecting China's economic performance. Using a provincial-level panel dataset, this paper seeks to quantify the impact of exports on China's economic growth, focusing in particular on the often-neglected knock-on effects of exports on investment, employment, income and consumption. We find that a 10 percentage-point decline in export growth has been associated with a decline of about 2.5 percentage points in GDP growth on average. This is much higher than the estimated direct impact of exports on growth. The spill-over effects from exports to domestic demand and employment are found to be positive and statistically significant, and are particularly sizable in regions with greater trade exposures. Indeed, such secondary effects are found to increase rapidly with the size of exports relative to the economy.

Where China Meets Latin America: Implications For Economic Growth

“…Price responsiveness to labor P L is negligible across countries except for Venezuela with a meager -0.01 percent. CapitalK turns out to be the second most robust growth determinant for Latin America, after the price of exportablesP X , with a The above findings are consistent with Cui et al [29], and Guo and N'Diaye [30] in that a 1-percent increase in China's GDP requires an import expansion between 0.10 and 0.22 percent. Alternatively, if Latin America remained as dependent on their exports to China as it was between 1984 to 2008, a 1-percent annual grow in Latin America's GDP would only be sustained if its export share to China increased by about 0.12 percent per year.…”

Assessment of the asymmetric impacts of the geopolitical risk on oil market dynamics

“…Prof. Dr. Oguzhan Ozcelebi ORCID Oguzhan Ozcelebi https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8746-9167 ENDNOTES 1 Exports are a component of aggregate demand that can be proxied by the industrial production. For instance, see Cui, Shu, and Su (2011) and Fedoseeva and Zeidan (2016). In this study, as a proxy for real economic activity, industrial production was used instead of GDP, since oil is regarded as an important input for industrial production.…”

The Consequences of the Global Financial Crisis

“…Critics argue that Anderson's approach ignores the increasing significance of local content and "capital goods and parts and components" in Chinese exports (Cui and Syed, 2007: 7). More important, export industries are themselves key drivers of "domestic" sources of growth like investment and consumption (Cui et al, 2009). Indeed, for Akyüz (2010: 7), when you add these resulting spillovers into the domestic economy, then exports are even more important than previously thought, and account for at least half of Chinese GNP.…”