How Much Is Enough? The "Ballot Order Effect" and the Use of Social Science Research in Election Law Disputes

Alvarez, R. Michael; Sinclair, Betsy; Hasen, Richard L.

doi:10.1089/elj.2006.5.40

Cited by 37 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The topic is almost as old as the political science discipline itself (Bagley 1966;Brooks 1921;Dana 1912;Gold 1952;Mackerras 1968;Mueller 1969;White 1950;Wilson 1912), but scientific interest only really took hold in the last quarter of the twentieth century (Bakker & Lijphart 1980;Bowler et al 1992;Brook & Upton 1974;Byrne & Pueschel 1974;Darcy 1986;Darcy & McAllister 1990;Hughes 1970;Kelley & McAllister 1984;Lijphart & Pintor 1988;Miller & Krosnick 1998;Robson & Walsh 1974;Scott 1977;Taebel 1975;Volcansek 1981) and it has not lost momentum after the turn of the millennium (Alvarez et al 2006;Brockington 2003;Chen et al 2014;Faas & Schoen 2006;Geys & Heyndels 2003;Ho & Imai 2008;Johnson & Miles 2011;Kim et al 2015;King & Leigh 2009;Koppell & Steen 2004;Krosnick et al 2004;Lutz 2010;Matson & Fine 2006;Meredith & Salant 2013;Villodres & de la Puerta 2006 Darcy and McAllister 1990) review of the early literature, most studies do not address this problem, but simply measure whether candidates in different positions on average do better...…”

Section: What We Already Know About Ballot Position and Ballot Layoutmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ballot position and election results: Evidence from a natural experiment

et al. 2016

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Abstract:Candidates listed first on the ballot paper regularly receive more votes than other candidates, but what role does ballot layout play in this connection? Experimental studies from first-pastthe-post systems show that the ballot position effect is causal as the order of names functions as a cue to voters. Does this also hold for PR systems where voters may vote for a party instead of a specific candidate? We identify a natural experiment in Danish local and regional elections involving more than 10,000 candidates on 103 different ballot papers using ballot layout to study ballot position effects. We find indeed, the ballot position/layout has a causal effect on election results in PR systems. Our findings indicate that the empirical domain of ballot position and layout effects is much wider than suggested by previous research. 2The question of whether a top position on the ballot paper affords a candidate an advantage over other candidates in an election has a long history, both in political science and in practical politics. Woodrow Wilson made the following observation in the beginning of the twentieth century, and it remains valid to this day:I have seen a ballot … which contained seven hundred names. It was bigger than the page of a newspaper and was printed in close columns as a newspaper would be. Of course no voter who is not a trained politician, who has not watched the whole process of nomination carefully, who does not know a great deal about the derivation and character and association of every nominee it contains, can vote a ticket like that with intelligence. In nine cases out of ten, as it has turned out, he will simply mark the first name under each office (Wilson 1912: 593).Since then, a considerable body of political science research has been devoted to identifying more exactly the effect of being listed first on the ballot. Many studies find positive effects, but many studies also find that the contingent effects suggested by Wilson -publicity, It is especially unfortunate that there is so little evidence from proportional representation (PR) systems, which is the most common type of electoral system worldwide (Reynolds et al. 2005: 31). We are primarily interested in list PR systems where voters may vote for a specific candidate or simply vote for a party and thus avoid the challenge of having to select a specific candidate. It is therefore far from clear that ballot position effects will be found in these systems. 4The purpose of this paper is to study list PR systems to determine the degree to which they belong to the empirical domain of ballot position effects. Danish local and regional elections offer a unique opportunity to do this. The paper is structured as follows: We begin by reviewing the existing empirical literature in order to evaluate the present knowledge of ballot position effects, to identify lacunae in the literature, and to argue for the value added by our study. Second, we introduce the Danish local and regional electoral system and its merits as a natural experimen...

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Section: What We Already Know About Ballot Position and Ballot Layoutmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Losers have often contested election results arguing that winners were unfairly favored by their position on the ballot. Cases have been taken before courts, which have often acknowledged ballot position effects and sometimes even annulled election results for this very reason (Alvarez et al 2006; see also Miller & Krosnick 1998). …”

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confidence: 99%

Ballot position and election results: Evidence from a natural experiment

et al. 2016

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“…In a wellknown survey, Miller and Krosnick (1998) observe that while much of this literature concludes that candidates benefit from being listed first, the estimated effects are often small and the research designs often do not offer convincing identification of causal effects. The more recent literature that employs stronger research designs does not always find meaningful or consistent position effects (see Alvarez et al (2006) and Ho and Imai (2008), or in contrast Meredith and Yuval (2013)). Such ballot order effects as do exist are typically attributed to voters losing interest or ceasing to seek favorable information about candidates as they move down the ballot (satisficing).…”

Section: Existing Literaturementioning

confidence: 95%

Ballot Order Effects in Referendum Elections

Matsusaka

2014

SSRN Journal

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“…But scientific interest really took hold in the last quarter of the twentieth century (Bakker & Lijphart 1980;Bowler et al 1992;Brook & Upton 1974;Byrne & Pueschel 1974;Darcy 1986;Darcy & McAllister 1990;Hughes 1970;Kelley & McAllister 1984;Lijphart & Pintor 1988;Miller & Krosnick 1998;Robson & Walsh 1974;Scott 1977;Taebel 1975;Volcansek 1981). After the turn of the millennium this interest has not lost momentum (Alvarez et al 2006;Brockington 2003;Chen et al 2014 The more recent literature recognizes the problem and turns to experimental methods to deal with it. In the following we focus on such studies -which also include some early contributions -in order to assess the current knowledge of name order effects, to identify lacunae in the literature and to argue for the added value of our study.…”

Section: What We Already Know About Ballot Position Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Losers have often contested election results arguing that winners were unfairly favored by their position on the ballot. Cases have been taken before courts, which have often acknowledged ballot position effects and sometimes annulled election results for this reason (Alvarez et al 2006; see also Miller and) Krosnick 1998).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Факторы Голосования: Вопросы Классификации И Анализа

Трегубов¹

2017

Полис

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Abstract:Candidates listed first on the ballot paper regularly receive more votes than other candidates. Experimental studies from first-past-the-post systems show that this ballot position effect is causal, not just a result of parties affording top positions to popular candidates, and stems from the physical ordering of candidate names functioning as a cue to voters. Does this also hold for PR systems where voters may avoid the challenge of choosing a specific individual candidate and instead simply vote for a party? We identify a natural experiment in the Danish simultaneous local and regional elections -pure list PR systems -where the ballot design make the allocation of some top positions as-if random. Based on election results for more than 10,000 candidates, listed on 103 different ballot papers, we find that ballot position, indeed, also has a causal effect on election results in PR systems. Our findings indicate that the empirical domain of ballot position effects is much wider than suggested by previous research. ____________________ * The first draft of this paper was presented at NOPSA 2014 in Gothenburg, Sweden.. We very much appreciate the constructive comments by participants in the workshop on Causal Effects in Political Science. We also appreciate the very competent and helpful research assistance from Lea Lauridsen, Katrine Wied Thomsen, and Niels Bjørn Grund Petersen. 2The question of whether a top position on the ballot paper affords a candidate an advantage over his or her fellow candidates in an election has a long history, both in political science and in practical politics. At the beginning of the twentieth century, Woodrow Wilson made an observation that summed up speculations that were to last until the present days:I have seen a ballot of this kind which contained seven hundred names. It was bigger than the page of a newspaper and was printed in close columns as a newspaper would be. Of course no voter who is not a trained politician, who has not watched the whole process of nomination carefully, who does not know a great deal about the derivation and character and association of every nominee it contains, can vote a ticket like that with intelligence. In nine cases out of ten, as it has turned out, he will simply mark the first name under each office (Wilson 1912: 593).Since then, a considerable body of political science research has been devoted to identifying more exactly the effect of being listed first on the ballot. Many studies find positive effects but many studies also find, that the contingent effects suggested by Wilson -publicity, engagement, educated voters and many other factors -may modify or even nullify ballot position effects (e.g. Chen et al. However, identifying ballot position effects with some accuracy is challenging. The reason is that political parties and candidates are likely to anticipate them and act strategically to harvest them. If being listed first really brings electoral advantages, parties and candidates are likely to actively seek this position on th...

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How Much Is Enough? The "Ballot Order Effect" and the Use of Social Science Research in Election Law Disputes

Abstract: Abstract

Cited by 37 publications

References 12 publications

Ballot position and election results: Evidence from a natural experiment

Ballot position and election results: Evidence from a natural experiment

Ballot Order Effects in Referendum Elections

Факторы Голосования: Вопросы Классификации И Анализа

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