How promise breaking in trade rhetoric shapes attitudes toward bilateral US-China trade cooperation

Abstract

The ongoing trade war between the United States and China represents one of the most severe deteriorations of trade cooperation in modern times. In this context, the ferocious trade rhetoric accusing China of breaking promises in trade policy is striking. A previously unexamined question in this context arises: How does this rhetoric shape individual attitudes toward bilateral trade cooperation? My analysis of original survey experiments from the United States and China (n = 4181) suggests that this type of rhetoric has important ramifications. Experimental evidence from both countries suggests that individuals react more strongly to rhetoric emphasizing negative than positive past behaviour of the trading partner. Overall, this pattern prevails independently of the identity of the trading partner. Promise-breaking trade narratives, a key contextual dimension of the US-China trade war, diminish the perceived level of trustworthiness of the other country. A conjoint analysis suggests that individuals’ trade cooperation attitudes are also shaped by rhetoric targeting issue areas beyond trade, such as military affairs and human rights. These findings highlight the importance of contextual factors accompanying the US-China trade war context. Thereby, this article emphasizes the potential for political elites to effectively leverage fundamental individual fairness principles for invigorating opposition to open trading relations.

China and the WTO

“…Equally, in public debates surrounding such policy interactions, the potential trading partner country is highly salient. Citizens also take into account the prior behavior and characteristics of other countries when evaluating their own government's foreign economic policy (Spilker et al, 2016;Chilton et al, 2020;Feng et al, 2021;Raess, 2021;Schweinberger, 2021).…”

“…All the countries represent important trading nations, but the international political concerns and political relations with other countries vary. Correspondingly, current political rhetoric varies considerably between these countries, particularly in the context of the trade war (Carnegie and Carson, 2019;Schweinberger, 2021). The U.S., for instance, is the global hegemon, even if its hegemony is currently in decline.…”

“…These developments suggest that China is different from other trading partners. In contrast to European and other trading partners, China is increasingly challenging U.S. power and is considered a political adversary (Nguyen et al, 2021;Schweinberger, 2021;Smeltz and Kafura, 2021). Trading relations with China are currently much more discussed than any other commercial relations between other countries.…”

Tycoon candidates, electoral strategies, and voter support: a survey experiment in South Africa

“…In the racial framing vignette, the candidate is described as "a strong advocate of removing apartheid symbols and statues from government buildings and 49 Klašnja and Tucker (2013). 50 Schweinberger (2022).…”