How reliable are forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for countries with limited coverage?

Krkoska, Libor; Teksoz, Utku

doi:10.1016/j.ecosys.2009.04.003

Cited by 19 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Empirical research about economic forecast accuracy has long been the focus of researchers (Mincer and Zarnowitz 1969;Makridakis et al 1979;Boothe and Glassman 1987;Karamouzis and Lombra 1989;Zarnowitz 1991;Jansen and Kishnan 1996;Joutz and Stekler 2000;Romer and Romer 2000;Croushore and Stark 2001;Loungani 2001;Clements and Taylor 2001;Sims 2002;Ashiya 2005;Isiklar et al 2006;Clements et al 2007;Golinelli and Parigi 2008;Lahiri and Isiklar 2009;Ager et al 2009;Blaskowitz and Herwartz 2009;Krkoska and Teksoz 2009;Sinclair et al 2010;Abreu 2011;Croushore 2011;Dovern and Weisser 2011;Costantini and Kunst 2011;Carvalho and Minella 2012;Deschamps and Bianchi 2012;González Cabanillas and Terzi 2012;Loungani et al 2013;Capistrán and López-Moctezuma 2014;Golinelli and Parigi 2014;Lewis and Pain 2014;Messina et al 2015;Dovern et al 2015;Guisinger and Sinclair 2015;Sheng 2015;Q. Chen et al 2016;Dovern and Jannsen 2017;An et al 2018).…”

Section: Empirical Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The existing literature abounds in studies in which the performance of professional macroeconomic forecasts is intensively studied in relation to forecast accuracy, bias, and efficiency (Clements and Taylor 2001;Loungani 2001;Isiklar et al 2006;Ager et al 2009;Krkoska and Teksoz 2009;Lahiri and Isiklar 2009;Dovern and Weisser 2011;Carvalho and Minella 2012;Deschamps and Bianchi 2012;Bratu 2013;Loungani et al 2013;Capistrán and López-Moctezuma 2014;Dovern et al 2015;Q. Chen et al 2016).…”

Section: Empirical Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are numerous later studies on the samples of emerging market economies, such as Krkoska and Teksoz (2009) for transition countries, Carvalho and Minella (2012) for Brazil, and Capistrán and López-Moctezuma (2014) for Mexico. Other scholars were primarily focused on individual Asian countries, such as Ashiya (2005) for Japan, Lahiri and Isiklar (2009) for India, and Deschamps and Bianchi (2012) for China.…”

Section: Empirical Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Measurement of Economic Forecast Accuracy: A Systematic Overview of the Empirical Literature

Buturac

2021

JRFM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The primary purpose of the paper is to enable deeper insight into the measurement of economic forecast accuracy. The paper employs the systematic literature review as its research methodology. It is also the first systematic review of the measures of economic forecast accuracy conducted in scientific research. The citation-based analysis confirms the growing interest of researchers in the topic. Research on economic forecast accuracy is continuously developing and improving with the adoption of new methodological approaches. An overview of the limits and advantages of the methods used to assess forecast accuracy not only facilitate the selection and application of appropriate measures in future analytical works but also contribute to a better interpretation of the results. In addition to the presented advantages and disadvantages, the chronological presentation of methodological development (measures, tests, and strategies) provides an insight into the possibilities of further upgrading and improving the methodological framework. The review of empirical findings, in addition to insight into existing results, indicates insufficiently researched topics. All in all, the results presented in this paper can be a good basis and inspiration for creating new scientific contributions in future works.

show abstract

Section: Empirical Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Empirical Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Empirical Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Measurement of Economic Forecast Accuracy: A Systematic Overview of the Empirical Literature

Buturac

2021

JRFM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Loungani (2001) and Timmermann (2007) examined and compared the forecast performances for both advanced and developing countries provided by three international organisations and private forecasts, and found a high degree of similarity among their projections. Further, Krkoska and Teksoz (2007, 2009) examined the EBRD forecasts for 25 transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe between 1994 and the mid‐2000s. They reported that EBRD's GDP growth forecasts were prudent and more accurate than those of the OECD, IMF, EC, and private ones.…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Thirty‐year assessment of Asian Development Bank's forecasts

Tsuchiya

2021

Asian-Pac Economic Lit

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study assesses the performance of the forecasts of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for 45 countries between 1989 and 2019 with the following results: first, forecast accuracy and bias vary among countries and across variables; second, the Asian currency and global financial crises adversely affected the GDP and inflation forecast accuracy, whereas there were no such impacts on the current account forecast accuracy; third, the ADB's forecasts are broadly unbiased; fourth, inflation forecasts are efficient but the GDP and current account forecasts are not; finally, unbiasedness is broadly robust for the countries' regions. These results suggest that the ADB plays a grounding economic role in providing a reliable economic outlook for policymakers and businesses world wide.

show abstract

“…Most of the studies considered only a few countries, commonly the G-7 countries, and they usually focus on the longterm evaluation of the prediction algorithm in a time series framework (Tiwari and Suresh 2014). An analysis of the economic forecasts produced by OECD and other organizations reveals that the predicted forecasts are usually incorrect but with several similarities in their estimates among them, follow a "momentumfollower" pattern and finally, tend to be rather conservative (Pons 2000;Krkoska and Teksoz 2009). Pain et al (2014) assessed the OECD's projections for gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery over the period 2007-2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the OECD’s prediction algorithm for the annual GDP growth rate

Economou

Batsidis

Κουνετάς

2020

Communications in Statistics: Case Studies, Data Analysis and A

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Forecast of gross domestic product (GDP) growth differences between countries serves an important role in the justification of governments fiscal policy measures and in making decisions on future plans. Prior to using predictions in practice, one should evaluate the proposed prediction algorithm and ensure that it produces accurate and reliable predictions. This evaluation includes many aspects but one of the most important ones is the comparison of the predicted values with the actual outcomes. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts twice a year the GDP growth rate of its 36 member countries. In the present article, the actual annually GDP growth rates for all member countries, from 2013 to 2018, are examined simultaneously at separate years, and not in the long term, with respect to their corresponding forecasts given one or two years earlier. The results indicate a weak and in most cases inaccurate used prediction algorithm for the GDP growth rate for the OECD member countries.

show abstract

How reliable are forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for countries with limited coverage?

Cited by 19 publications

References 15 publications

Measurement of Economic Forecast Accuracy: A Systematic Overview of the Empirical Literature

Measurement of Economic Forecast Accuracy: A Systematic Overview of the Empirical Literature

Thirty‐year assessment of Asian Development Bank's forecasts

Evaluation of the OECD’s prediction algorithm for the annual GDP growth rate

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About