How Russia Affects the Neighborhood: Trade, Financial, and Remittance Channels

Espinosa-Bowen, Jaime; Ilahi, Nadeem; Alturki, Fahad

doi:10.5089/9781451874228.001

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…The stimulating effect of Poland's output is significant according to three out of four estimators. The estimates of spillovers from output in the CIS countries were not stable across different estimators, further supporting earlier findings of the shrinking role of trade with Russia for the post-Soviet countries (Alturki et al, 2009). There is robust evidence of Ukraine's long-term output neutrality with respect to economic growth in the CEE-3 countries.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 63%

“…However, this was still associated with sizable effects on several of them, e.g. Belarus and Kazakhstan (Alturki et al, 2009). According to some estimates, a free trade agreement with the EU countries increased Ukraine's output by 11.8% in the long run, while entering the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan decreased it by 3.7% (Movchan and Giucci, 2011).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trading Partners and Output Growth in Ukraine

Żyra,

Kopych

2023

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

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This study aimed to empirically estimate the long-term and short-term relations between the output of trading partners and economic growth in Ukraine. With the use of quarterly data over the 2004-2019 period, it was found that an increase of output in the euro area resulted in the most substantial stimulating long-term effect on the level of GDP in Ukraine, followed by spillovers from output growth in Poland. There was no long-term effect of output in other major trading partners, such as other Central and Eastern European countries (Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia) and the former Soviet Union countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia). In the short run, the stimulating effect of foreign output was confirmed only for spillovers from the euro area. Among other results, there was a longterm contractionary effect of both exchange rate depreciation and liberalisation of the economic environment, as indicated by the Index of Economic Freedom from the Washington-based Heritage Foundation (both factors are neutral with respect to Ukraine’s output in the short run).

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 63%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trading Partners and Output Growth in Ukraine

Żyra,

Kopych

2023

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

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“…Meanwhile, as argued in Feldkircher & Korhonen (2014), the sensitivity to emerging economies (e.g., China) remains moderate, but is stronger compared to other countries. The importance of the Russian economy for Ukraine is confirmed in Alturki et al (2009). Faryna & Simola (2018) also report a high sensitivity to US, euro area, Russian, and Chinese output shocks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Untitled

2019

VNBU

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This paper studies the transmission of foreign output shocks to real activity in Ukraine through international trade. We employ a global vector auto regressive (GVAR) model that captures about 80% of the world economy and incorporates time-varying trade and financial weights. According to our estimates, a mild recession in the US of a 1% drop in output generates a substantial recession in Ukraine of about 2.2%. A similar drop of output in the euro area and Russia translates to a drop in output of about 1.7% in Ukraine. Finally, the same drop of output in CEE, China, or the CIS leads to an output decline of about 0.4% in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine's response to euro area output shock has been steadily increasing over the last couple of decades due to changes in global trade flows. Ukraine's sensitivity to shocks in the US and euro area is notably strengthened by indirect trade effects, while the response to shocks from emerging economies, i.e., China, CEE, the CIS, and partially Russia, is mainly determined by bilateral trade linkages.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

How Trade Composition Affects Sensitivity to Foreign Shocks: Applying a Global VAR Model to Ukraine

Faryna¹,

Simola

2019

VNBU

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This paper studies the transmission of foreign output shocks to real activity in Ukraine through international trade. We employ a global vector auto regressive (GVAR) model that captures about 80% of the world economy and incorporates time-varying trade and financial weights. According to our estimates, a mild recession in the US of a 1% drop in output generates a substantial recession in Ukraine of about 2.2%. A similar drop of output in the euro area and Russia translates to a drop in output of about 1.7% in Ukraine. Finally, the same drop of output in CEE, China, or the CIS leads to an output decline of about 0.4% in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s response to euro area output shock has been steadily increasing over the last couple of decades due to changes in global trade flows. Ukraine’s sensitivity to shocks in the US and euro area is notably strengthened by indirect trade effects, while the response to shocks from emerging economies, i.e., China, CEE, the CIS, and partially Russia, is mainly determined by bilateral trade linkages.

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How Russia Affects the Neighborhood: Trade, Financial, and Remittance Channels

Cited by 8 publications

References 15 publications

Trading Partners and Output Growth in Ukraine

Trading Partners and Output Growth in Ukraine

Untitled

How Trade Composition Affects Sensitivity to Foreign Shocks: Applying a Global VAR Model to Ukraine

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