How Jordan and Saudi Arabia are avoiding a tragedy of the commons over shared groundwater

Abstract

Transboundary aquifers are ubiquitous and strategically important to global food and water security. Yet these shared resources are being depleted at an alarming rate. Focusing on the Disi aquifer, a key nonrenewable source of groundwater shared by Jordan and Saudi Arabia, this study develops a two‐stage game that evaluates optimal transboundary strategies of common‐pool resource exploitation under various assumptions. The analysis relies on estimates of agricultural water use from satellite imagery, which were obtained using three independent remote sensing approaches. Drawdown response to pumping is simulated using a 2‐D regional aquifer model. Jordan and Saudi Arabia developed a buffer‐zone strategy with a prescribed minimum distance between each country's pumping centers. We show that by limiting the marginal impact of pumping decisions on the other country's pumping costs, this strategy will likely avoid an impeding tragedy of the commons for at least 60 years. Our analysis underscores the role played by distance between wells and disparities in groundwater exploitation costs on common‐pool overdraft. In effect, if pumping centers are distant enough, a shared aquifer no longer behaves as a common‐pool resource and a tragedy of the commons can be avoided. The 2015 Disi aquifer pumping agreement between Jordan and Saudi Arabia, which in practice relies on a joint technical commission to enforce exclusion zones, is the first agreement of this type between sovereign countries and has a promising potential to avoid conflicts or resolve potential transboundary groundwater disputes over comparable aquifer systems elsewhere.

Complementary Vantage Points: Integrating Hydrology and Economics for Sociohydrologic Knowledge Generation

“…Use of natural and quasi‐experiments to support causal empirical research in sociohydrology is emerging, particularly in data‐scarce regions. A handful of recent studies have leveraged hydrologic modeling and remote sensing to conduct causal inferences in regions that are inaccessible due to remoteness (Müller, Thompson, et al, ), ongoing conflict (Müller et al, ), or political barriers (Müller, Müller‐Itten, et al, ) or where the limited size or representativeness of standard hydrologic monitoring data otherwise prohibits cross‐scale generalization (Levy et al, ).…”

Non-renewable groundwater use and groundwater depletion: a review

“…This occurs because groundwater withdrawal may lead to water table (or head) decline in parts of the aquifer that do not underlie the individual user's land, thus leading to increased extraction costs for others, often called pumping externalities (Negri 1989). So, just as with many other common pool resources groundwater may suffer from the tragedy of the commons (Hardin 1968, Muller et al 2017. Note, however, that the largest groundwater decline will occur at the location where groundwater is being pumped.…”

Tackling the Trickle: Ensuring Sustainable Water Management in the Arab Region

“…To date, no interstate wars have been fought over transboundary waters (Subramanian et al, 2014); however, potential tensions over transboundary waters might heighten as water use equals or exceeds available resources, as pollution increases and countries seek to develop water resources to foster economic growth (De Stefano et al, 2017), including in the Asi‐Orontes (Bernauer & Böhmelt, 2014) Jordan (Jägerskog, 2003), Nile (Whittington et al, 2014), and Tigris‐Euphrates (Kibaroglu, 2019) river basins (see supporting information Note S1). The Arab region hosts a number of transboundary aquifers with an operational arrangement for water cooperation (e.g., the Nubian Sandstone aquifer system (McCracken & Meyer, 2018)) and examples of innovative management agreements (e.g., Disi aquifer pumping agreement between Jordan and Saudi Arabia (Müller et al, 2017)), demonstrating that cooperation over shared waters is feasible and has been applied in the region.…”