How Significant Is Sub‐Saharan Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa will be undergoing substantial demographic changes over the next 15 years with the rising working-age share of its population. The opportunity of African countries to convert these changes into demographic dividends for growth and poverty reduction will depend on several factors. The outlook will likely be good if African countries can continue the gains already made under better institutions and policies, particularly those affecting the productivity of labor, such as educational outcomes. If African countries can continue to build on the hard-won development gains, the demographic dividend could account for 11-15% of gross domestic product (GDP) volume growth by 2030, while accounting for 40-60 million fewer poor in 2030. The gains can become more substantial with better educational outcomes that allow African countries to catch up to other developing countries. If the skill share of Africa's labor supply doubles because of improvements in educational attainment, from 25 to about 50% between 2011 and 2030, then the demographic dividends can expand the regional economy additionally by 22% by 2030 relative to the base case and reduce poverty by an additional 51 million people.

Youth migration, livelihood prospects and demographic dividend: A comparison of the Census 2011 and Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in the rural northeast of South Africa

“…The ‘youth bulge’ needs to gain skills that can be directed toward productive activity (Ssewamala 2015). On the optimistic side, one group argues that “If African countries can continue to build on the hard-won development gains, the demographic dividend could account for 11–15% of gross domestic product (GDP) volume growth by 2030, while accounting for 40–60 million fewer poor in 2030” (Ahmed et al 2016:1). Economic returns to the demographic dividend would be even greater, they argue, if skills improve further because of added educational improvements during the transition.…”

Introduction: New Perspectives on Africa’s Youth Employment Challenge

“…Two closely related ideas -youth bulge (Evoh 2012;Sommers 2011) and demographic dividend (Ahmed et al 2016;Choi 2016;Lipton 2011, 2012) -figure prominently in Development and the Next Generation, and have since become key aspects of a now dominant narrative that both justifies and orients policy around youth and employment. A youth bulge refers to the situation that arises when countries reduce infant mortality but still have a high fertility rate, and as a result, a large share of the population comprises children and young adults.…”

The Political Situation, Trends and Geopolitical Implications of Sub-Saharan and North African Countries: Comparative Study

“…In the first ten years of the twenty-first century, Africa's economy has experienced a period of rapid development. Over the past five years, the SSA's economic growth rate has been higher than the global economic growth in all year, and in most years higher than in North Africa (Ahmed, Cruz, Go, Maliszewska, & Osorio-Rodarte, 2016). In addition, in 2009 due to the international financial crisis economic growth 2.6 percent has slowed down, but the remaining years were higher than 5 percent (IMF, 2016).…”