How the COVID-19 Recession Could Affect Health Insurance Coverage

Garrett, Alice; Gangopadhyaya, Anuj

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3598558

Cited by 42 publications

(31 citation statements)

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“…With the rapidly evolving situation around the COVID-19 pandemic, a simulation model provides a framework to estimate future outcomes accounting for uncertainty around model parameters and to predict the results of hypothetical scenarios. We first estimated changes in ESDI rates due to recent increases in unemployment claims, using previously published econometric estimates (Garrett and Gangopadhyaya 2020). These estimates used in our base-case scenario were obtained from a study fitting individual-level regression models on the American Community Survey (ACS) (US Census Bureau 2018) (Appendix Table 1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Impact of COVID-19 on Dental Insurance Coverage and Utilization

et al. 2020

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Unemployment rates in the United States are rapidly increasing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and attendant economic disruption. As employees lose their jobs, many will lose their employer-sponsored dental insurance (ESDI). Changes in insurance coverage are directly related to the oral health of the population, with many at risk of losing access to dental care. We assessed the impact of recent unemployment rates on insurance coverage and dental utilization. We estimated changes in dental insurance coverage at the state level, using previously applied econometric estimates. Expected changes in types of dental procedures performed at dental practices nationwide were assessed using a microsimulation model, using national practice survey data. Changes in emergency department (ED) visits for dental problems were estimated by fitting trendlines to ED visit patterns by payer type. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess how variations in unemployment rates and rates of ESDI in response to unemployment could alter the results. Since March 2020, the national unemployment rate has increased by 8.40 percentage points, an increase expected to result in more than 16 million individuals losing ESDI in the United States. Of these individuals, 45.0% are likely to enroll in their state’s Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program, and 47.0% are expected to become uninsured. With these expected changes in dental insurance coverage, the average dental practice would experience decreases in routine checkup visits but increases in tooth extraction, a procedure that is highly used by publicly insured or uninsured patients. In addition, dental-related ED visits would be expected to grow by 4.0%. Losses of employment caused by the COVID-19 in the United States can have countervailing effects on people’s health by impeding access to dental care. Lack of dental insurance is expected to be more pronounced in states that have not expanded Medicaid or do not provide Medicaid dental benefits for adults.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Impact of COVID-19 on Dental Insurance Coverage and Utilization

et al. 2020

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“…Compensation in health coverage through increased Medicaid and Medicare coverage may promote accessibility to health care but strain state budgets, leading to restricted resources. 98 During periods of economic contraction and unemployment, health care utilization decreases because of declining demand for medical care, as seen during the Great Recession (2007-2009). 99,100 Even individuals with continued insurance may reduce discretionary spending on health care services and preventive measures 101 because of fear of job loss, declining household income, and greater economic insecurity.…”

Section: Shifts In Health Care Coveragementioning

confidence: 99%

“…97 Escalating unemployment rates are expected to cause a shift from commercial employer-sponsored health insurance to individual, Medicare, or Medicaid plans; millions may be left uninsured altogether. 98 More than half of workers losing employer-sponsored coverage in Medicaid expansion states (37 states, including California, New England states, and New York) are expected to gain Medicaid coverage. 98 In non-expansion states (13 states, including Florida, Texas, and Georgia), employees losing employer-sponsored coverage are more likely to become uninsured.…”

Section: Anticipated Impact Of Covid-19 On Health Benefits and Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 98 More than half of workers losing employer-sponsored coverage in Medicaid expansion states (37 states, including California, New England states, and New York) are expected to gain Medicaid coverage. 98 In non-expansion states (13 states, including Florida, Texas, and Georgia), employees losing employer-sponsored coverage are more likely to become uninsured. 98 As millions of lives migrate out of commercial plans, payers will experience a significant reduction in membership.…”

Section: Anticipated Impact Of Covid-19 On Health Benefits and Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 98 In non-expansion states (13 states, including Florida, Texas, and Georgia), employees losing employer-sponsored coverage are more likely to become uninsured. 98 As millions of lives migrate out of commercial plans, payers will experience a significant reduction in membership. Compensation in health coverage through increased Medicaid and Medicare coverage may promote accessibility to health care but strain state budgets, leading to restricted resources.…”

Section: Anticipated Impact Of Covid-19 On Health Benefits and Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Return to Work: Managing Employee Population Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Fragala

Goldberg

2021

Population Health Management

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Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), has abruptly transformed the outlook of employer health benefits plans for 2020 and 2021. Containing the spread of the virus and facilitating care of those infected have quickly emerged as immediate priorities. Employers have adjusted health benefits coverage to make COVID-19 testing and treatment accessible and remove barriers to care in order to facilitate the containment of the disease. Employers also are introducing strategies focused on testing, surveillance, workplace modifications, and hygiene to keep workforces healthy and workplaces safe. This paper is intended to provide evidence-based perspectives for self-insured employers for managing population health during the COVID-19 pandemic. Such considerations include (1) return to work practices focused on mitigating the spread of COVID-19 through safety practices, testing and surveillance; and (2) anticipating the impact of COVID-19 on health benefits and costs (including adaptations in delivery of care, social and behavioral health needs, and managing interrupted care for chronic conditions).

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Preparing the Health Insurance Marketplaces for the COVID-19 Recession

Anderson

Drake

2020

JAMA Health Forum

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Researchers at the Urban Institute recently estimated that 25 to 43 million people in the US will lose their employer-sponsored insurance as a result of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. 1 These coverage losses have created an urgent need to transition those who have newly lost insurance to other forms of health insurance, lest they avoid seeking medical care or incur catastrophic medical debt for doing so. The Health Insurance Marketplaces created by the Affordable Care Act will play a large role in providing nonelderly Americans with health insurance during the COVID-19 recession. The same Urban Institute study estimated that 6 to 10 million Americans will regain health insurance coverage through the Marketplaces. 1 Continuous insurance

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How the COVID-19 Recession Could Affect Health Insurance Coverage

Cited by 42 publications

References 0 publications

Modeling the Impact of COVID-19 on Dental Insurance Coverage and Utilization

Modeling the Impact of COVID-19 on Dental Insurance Coverage and Utilization

Return to Work: Managing Employee Population Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Preparing the Health Insurance Marketplaces for the COVID-19 Recession

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