How the fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty of China respond to global oil price volatility: A multi-regime-on-scale approach

Jiang, Qisheng; Cheng, Sheng

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102121

Cited by 22 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Crude oil, an important industrial raw material, and its price fluctuations have significant macroeconomic impacts often characterized by asymmetry (Das & Kannadhasan, 2020; Jiang & Cheng, 2021; Loungani, 1986; Mork et al, 1994; Su et al, 2021). Policymakers responsible for mitigating macroeconomic trends to maintain economic stability and growth may have to deal with a trade-off between high inflation and low production stabilization (Sun et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Theoretically, growth, investment, and demand all suffer as a result of EPUs impacting oil prices (Antonakakis et al 2014). Notably, oil price shocks can spread throughout an economy through macroeconomic policies (e.g., monetary and fiscal policies) (Jiang & Cheng, 2021; Pieschacón, 2012). Economic policies are well-known and powerful macroeconomic tools; historically, they have played important roles during oil price shocks—in other words, oil price fluctuation is one of source of EPU (Kara, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Asymmetric Impact of the Oil Price and Disaggregate Shocks on Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence From China

Yang

Guo

2023

Sage Open

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This study attempts to investigate the asymmetric impacts of oil price and component shocks on categorical economic policy uncertainties (EPUs) in China. A novel multiple thresholds nonlinear autoregressive distributed lagged model (ARDL) was employed to capture the asymmetric impacts of oil price and shocks on EPUs in the short and long run. Additionally, the influence of the Brent oil price on integral EPU was also examined. We find that asymmetric impact is more remarkable in the long run in China. Among the four categorical EPUs, trade policy uncertainty is the most notable in most cases. Based on the results, some implications are provided to policymakers and investors.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Asymmetric Impact of the Oil Price and Disaggregate Shocks on Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence From China

Yang

Guo

2023

Sage Open

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“…The movement in trade sectors was also influenced by changes in global commodity prices and the world oil price. (Agnello et al, 2020;Jiang and Cheng, 2021;Long et al, 2021;Meng et al, 2020;Sun and Wang, 2021) Research demonstrated that changes in global commodity prices and the global oil price affected economic growth and monetary policy response. The empirical findings of the study by (Bhattarai et al, 2020;Hanisch, 2019;Lee and Bowdler, 2022;Yildirim and Ivrendi, 2021) showed that the spillover effects of US monetary policy were significantly exerted through financial channels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Economic Impact of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy, Global Commodity Shocks, and Oil Price Shocks on ASEAN 3

Rifa'i

2023

IJEEP

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This study examines the implications of the United States unconventional monetary policy, global commodity prices, and the oil price shock on monetary policy responses and economic growth in the ASEAN 3 countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. The empirical evidence suggests that the shock from the United States unconventional monetary policy led to the change in ASEAN's monetary policy. The fluctuation of crude oil and global commodity prices considerably impacts ASEAN's monetary policy response 3. The Central Bank can use such evidence as a reference to alter monetary policy in reaction to the global oil price and the unconventional monetary policy of the United States. The government will also be able to foresee the impact of global oil and commodities prices and preserve ASEAN 3's economic growth.

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“…The relation between policy uncertainty and economic activity has received increased attention from academics and policymakers in recent years (for recent work on this topic, see An et al., 2016; Bonaime et al., 2018; Gulen & Ion, 2016; Jens, 2017; Jiang & Cheng, 2021; Julio & Yook, 2012; Kaviani et al., 2020; Pastor & Veronesi, 2013; Wang et al., 2014; Zhang et al., 2018). The chief economist of Vanguard Group, Joseph Davis, calls the corrosive effect of policy‐related uncertainty on a firm's willingness and ability to invest an “uncertainty tax.” The research on policy uncertainty focuses on political elections or uses a broad metric based on general economic conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How uncertainty in industry policy affects corporate investment in China

Deloof

Yang

2022

Business Fin & Account

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In this paper, we investigate the link between uncertainty in industrial policy and firm investment by focusing on China's five-year plan (FYP). Our sample period is from 1998 to 2017. In our investigation, we examine whether a change in the FYP is a source of uncertainty in industrial policy because of the difficulties in FYP predictability. Our main finding is that there are systematic decreases in investments in the year prior to a new FYP. The finding is robust to endogeneity. We also find that the relation between the uncertainty in industrial policy and investment is heterogeneous in the cross section. This heterogeneity is caused by information advantages about new FYP, dependence on government subsidies, investment irreversibility and industry competition. Further, investment rebounds after resolving the uncertainty but are dampened by adjustment costs.

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How the fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty of China respond to global oil price volatility: A multi-regime-on-scale approach

Cited by 22 publications

References 56 publications

The Asymmetric Impact of the Oil Price and Disaggregate Shocks on Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence From China

The Asymmetric Impact of the Oil Price and Disaggregate Shocks on Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence From China

The Economic Impact of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy, Global Commodity Shocks, and Oil Price Shocks on ASEAN 3

How uncertainty in industry policy affects corporate investment in China

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