How the mighty are fallen: Evaluating Abe Shinzō's leadership capital in crisis

Abstract

Japanese prime ministers have traditionally been seen as consensus-builders, lacking flair, charisma and the skills to be anything other than reactive leaders, constrained by a political system which privileged a strong bureaucracy and Liberal Democratic Party structures. Recent literature has, however, begun to explore prime ministerial agency, considering the ways in which Japanese prime ministers have been able to demonstrate stronger leadership not only because of an expansion of their power resources in the core executive and the party, but also because of their individual leadership skills, style and personal attributes. Drawing on studies which have highlighted the impact of Japanese prime ministerial agency, this article uses the Leadership Capital Index (LCI) alongside insights from crisis management literature to explore the latter months of Abe Shinzō's premiership. It considers the ways in which personal factors interacted with institutional and situational factors in shaping Abe's political authority during the final year of his prime ministership, with a particular focus on the pandemic period. It asks why, when Abe had otherwise been considered one of post-war Japan's strongest and most decisive leaders, did he fall short during the Covid-19 crisis? To what extent did his personal skills and leadership style help or hinder his ability to lead during the crisis? The article suggests that the LCI offers insights into ways in which, and why, Abe's apparently strong leadership skills went missing in action during the global pandemic.

The contemporary UK prime minister. When the personal becomes political: Agency, character, personality and celebrity

“…In Japan, the ability to influence policy has been substantially constrainedlargely due to a context that viewed 'strong leadership [as] the antithesis of Japanese cultural preferences for consensus and conformity' (Burrett, 2016: 50). This has placed the Japanese prime minister as one of the weakest leaders in advanced democracies (Maruoka and Rose, 2022;O'Malley, 2007;Strangio et al, 2013). As Japan has seen some strengthening of the office under Koizumi Junichirōand Abe Shinzō, with agency factors coming to the fore and some hint of a more stable leader-centred approach, the UK premiership has seen a period of turbulence.…”

“…In Japan, the ability to influence policy has been substantially constrained – largely due to a context that viewed ‘strong leadership [as] the antithesis of Japanese cultural preferences for consensus and conformity’ (Burrett, 2016: 50). This has placed the Japanese prime minister as one of the weakest leaders in advanced democracies (Maruoka and Rose, 2022; O’Malley, 2007; Strangio et al . , 2013).…”

“…There can be ‘shifts in style during particular tenures’, with leaders such as Thatcher and Blair empowered or weakened at different points (Blick and Jones, 2010: 123). Though Koizumi is often compared to Blair in terms of his youthful outlook as an effective communicator with high personal poll ratings (see Maruoka and Rose, 2022; Uchiyama, 2010), Abes two tenures as prime minister show how Japanese prime ministers can also shift during tenures or, in Abe’s case, from one tenure to another. Indeed, commentators noted the ‘good fortune’ that Abe inherited in terms of context and circumstance in his second term, and that he left Kantei in a better shape too (see Manuoka and Rose, 2022).…”

“…Other key relations exist around the prime minister; Cherie Blair was deemed to be influential, and Carrie Johnson also appeared to wield much unofficial influence over Johnson, Marcia Williams was a powerful gatekeeper and confidant toHarold Wilson, Anji Hunter for Blair, and Kate Fall for Cameron (see Weller, 2018). In Japan, Abe had a seemingly unassailable grip on power with a lack of alternative LDP leadership contenders, though working relations with the bureaucracy deteriorated during the pandemic (Maruoka and Rose, 2022).…”

“…Despite such historical semi-fixation with the occupants over the past 300 years, exploration of prime ministerial qualities – and the impact on the office – is much less well developed than in the field of presidential studies in the United States. Similarly, in Japan, historical context has defined prime ministerial occupants as weak, reactive leaders, constrained by a political system which privileged a strong bureaucracy and (for most of the post-war period) Liberal Democratic Party structures (Maruoka and Rose, 2022; Mishima, 2019).…”