How the U.S. Prison Boom Has Changed the Age Distribution of the Prison Population

Abstract

This article provides a demographic exposition of the changes in the U.S prison population during the period of mass incarceration that began in the late twentieth century. By drawing on data from the Survey of Inmates in State Correctional Facilities (1974–2004) for inmates 17–72 years of age (N = 336), we show that the age distribution shifted upward dramatically: Only 16 percent of the state prison population was 40 years old or older in 1974; by 2004, this percentage had doubled to 33 percent with the median age of prisoners rising from 27 to 34 years old. By using an estimable function approach, we find that the change in the age distribution of the prison population is primarily a cohort effect that is driven by the “enhanced” penal careers of the cohorts who hit young adulthood—the prime age of both crime and incarceration—when substance use was at its peak. Period-specific factors (e.g., proclivity for punishment and incidence of offense) do matter, but they seem to play out more across the life cycles of persons most affected in young adulthood (cohort effects) than across all age groups at one point in time (period effects).

Cumulative impact: Why prison sentences have increased*

“…My argument is not that policy and judicial discretion are unimportant, yet I contend that explanations of imprisonment growth must also take seriously whether and how the characteristics of those entering the criminal courts have changed. I called attention to the role of criminal histories, but future work might also be focused on factors such as the age composition of defendants (see Porter et al., ), racial demographics, employment histories, or changes in type of crime. In returning to Bushway and Forst's () point that neither judicial discretion (Type A) nor policy preferences (Type B) are constant, I would add that we must also be mindful that characteristics of the offending population can change over time, and such change has implications for imprisonment decisions.…”

“…It is plausible that other demographic characteristics of offenders also changed over time (Porter et al., ), and to account for this possibility, I control for the defendant's sex (male = 1), age when sentenced for the current offense (measured continuously), and race. The race variable has six categories: White (reference group), Black, American Indian, Hispanic, Asian, and an “Other” category (see table for descriptive statistics) .…”

“…Most researchers have tried to answer this question by way of macro‐level analyses of changes in imprisonment rates across states or countries. Yet research in this mold does not allow for a close inspection of characteristics of the offending population, which seems to have changed during the mass incarceration era (see Porter, Bushway, Tsao, & Smith, , on the age distribution). In the current study, thus, I examine whether the chance of going to prison has increased in recent decades because convicted defendants changed in an important way: They now have lengthier criminal records than they did in the past.…”

Missing Voices and Aging in Prison: Religiosity’s Influence on Positive Aging through Forgiveness

“…Further, Rowe and Kahn noted macrosocial changes influencing successful or positive aging. One such change, the aging of populations around the globe, creates many challenges, but is especially salient for the burgeoning U. S. prison population where the rate of increase in older prisoners is much higher relative to the overall population [3]. Thus, the present study, analyzing data provided by a convenience sample of incarcerated older males, expands concepts of positive aging in prison by positing and testing a model specifying the mediating role of forgiveness in the link between religiosity and seven outcomes associated with positive aging.…”

The Burgeoning Health Care Needs of Aging Prisoners

“…Such concerns are important if states look to private contracting to serve the health needs of aging inmates. Porter et al (2016) has documented the changing age profile of inmates to older ages. That paper also connects the age shift to consequences for fertility and other macroeconomic outcomes.…”