How to catch a black swan: Measuring the benefits of the premortem technique for risk identification

Gallop, David; Willy, Chris; Bischoff, John

doi:10.1080/19488289.2016.1240118

Cited by 17 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…They are typical in the domains of business and medicine (preferable to postmortems where the patient will see no benefit). Their success in those fields, in addition to results of basic research (e.g., Gallop et al, 2016; Veinott et al, 2010) suggest their potential utility in the education domain. In essence, premortems reduce overconfidence while increasing understanding of possible pitfalls.…”

Section: Failure To Bridge the Dividementioning

confidence: 99%

Lessons Learned? Reading Wars, Reading First, and a Way Forward

Goldberg¹,

Goldenberg²

2022

The Reading Teacher

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We are in the midst of yet another battle in the reading wars. Before the fog of war overcomes us yet again, we should recall recent history where an attempt at a resolution—Reading First— mostly left ambiguity in its wake. Moving forward, there is a foundation upon which to build. But doing so will require learning from the past, addressing challenges with clarity, and marshalling resources among collaborating researchers and practitioners.

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Section: Failure To Bridge the Dividementioning

confidence: 99%

Lessons Learned? Reading Wars, Reading First, and a Way Forward

Goldberg¹,

Goldenberg²

2022

The Reading Teacher

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“…This aspect of psychological safety is highly relevant for the effectiveness of a firms' debiasing efforts, as several debiasing mechanisms require individuals to raise substantial critique to be effective (e.g. devil's advocate, premortem analysis) (Baer et al, 2017;Gallop et al, 2016). If firms use the devil's advocate as a debiasing technique, but psychological safety is low, two things might happen that both hamper the effectiveness of this instrument.…”

Section: The Relevance Of Psychological Safety (H2)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, research suggests that firms use methods within their risk management process that can be classified as debiasing techniques. For example, Gallop et al (2016) advocate using pre-mortem analyzes for risk identification, a method where a project is assumed to have failed and potential reasons for the fictitious failure are evaluated from that perspective. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), a supplier of satellites and orbiters for NASA, uses similar techniques to develop the risk awareness of their engineers (Kaplan and Mikes, 2012).…”

Section: Risk Management and Usage Of Debiasing (H3)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Debiasing as a powerful management accounting tool? Evidence from German firms

Kreilkamp

Schmidt

Wöhrmann

2020

JAOC

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate if and how firms approach debiasing and what determines its success. In particular, this study examines if debiasing is effective in reducing cognitive decision biases. This paper also investigates organizational characteristics that determine the effectiveness of debiasing. Design/methodology/approach This study uses survey data from German firms to answer the research questions. Target respondents are individuals in a senior management accounting function. Findings In line with the hypotheses, this paper finds that debiasing can reduce cognitive biases. Moreover, this study finds that psychological safety not only directly influences the occurrence of cognitive biases but is also an important factor that determines the effectiveness of debiasing. Research limitations/implications This paper provides evidence that debiasing can serve as a powerful management accounting tool and discusses debiasing in the context of recent management accounting literature. This study also adds to the stream of research that investigates the role of psychological safety in organizations by highlighting its importance for successful debiasing. Practical implications This paper informs firms that use or intend to use debiasing about crucial determinants to consider when debating its implementation, i.e. psychological safety. This study also identifies risk management as a potential interface for the implementation of systematic debiasing. Originality/value While previous research primarily addresses specific cognitive biases and debiasing mechanisms using lab experiments, this is – to the best of the knowledge – the first study investigating cognitive biases and debiasing on a broad conceptual level using survey data.

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“… MLATNA -what would be the Most Likely Alternative (to a Negotiated Agreement) i.e. to the project failing for X reason Adding the premortem technique into the range of project planning tools helps teams to provide greater insight into risks, develop a range of flexible strategies (Gallop et al, 2016) and identify issues that may not have been considered before.…”

Section: How To Carry Out a Premortemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pre-empting project failure by using a pre-mortem

Mills

McKimm

2017

Br J Hosp Med

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In health care, a post-mortem might be required after a patient has died, to try and establish why, and sometimes when and how, the patient died. Many projects are likely to fail, with reasons including the lack of tools to facilitate change, and failure to consider the organizational and environmental situation a change project faces. When projects or initiatives fail, clinicians often carry out a 'post-mortem', trying to understand the factors that contributed to the failure, with the aim of learning lessons and not repeating the same mistakes. This article discusses the management technique known as the 'pre-mortem', with application of tools and strategies to help mitigate the risks of a change leading to failure.

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How to catch a black swan: Measuring the benefits of the premortem technique for risk identification

Cited by 17 publications

References 19 publications

Lessons Learned? Reading Wars, Reading First, and a Way Forward

Lessons Learned? Reading Wars, Reading First, and a Way Forward

Debiasing as a powerful management accounting tool? Evidence from German firms

Pre-empting project failure by using a pre-mortem

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