2016
DOI: 10.1007/s11229-016-1096-y
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How to expect a surprising exam

Abstract: In this paper, we provide a Bayesian analysis of the well-known surprise exam paradox. Central to our analysis is a probabilistic account of what it means for the student to accept the teacher's announcement that he will receive a surprise exam. According to this account, the student can be said to have accepted the teacher's announcement provided he adopts a subjective probability distribution relative to which he expects to receive the exam on a day on which he expects not to receive it. We show that as long… Show more

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Cited by 7 publications
(4 citation statements)
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“…See Kripke (2011, ch.2). Kim and Vasudevan (2017) have nicely accounted for this intuition with respect to SURPRISE. As will be clear below, our view accounts for this intuition, as it shows that every iteration of the student's argument requires additional knowledge.…”
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confidence: 89%
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“…See Kripke (2011, ch.2). Kim and Vasudevan (2017) have nicely accounted for this intuition with respect to SURPRISE. As will be clear below, our view accounts for this intuition, as it shows that every iteration of the student's argument requires additional knowledge.…”
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confidence: 89%
“…With every day that passes, the students discard the relevant disjunct and hence by the last day, they must lose their knowledge. Since TAF does not imply a disjunction of blindspots, nor does it leave room for contingent information that supports discarding particular elements, Sorensen's solution is unavailable.9 See Kripke (2011, ch.2) Kim and Vasudevan (2017). have nicely accounted for this intuition with respect to SURPRISE.…”
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confidence: 99%
“…See Kim and Vasudevan (forthcoming) for a contextualist account of expectation and surprise that is compatible with a pragmatism regarding of both concepts.…”
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confidence: 95%
“…Other examples that make a similar argument for resolution of the two-day paradox areKripke (2011),Kim and Vadusevan (2017) and the Inevitable Event in Holliday (2015).…”
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confidence: 92%