How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

Postma, T.J.B.M.; Liebl, Franz

doi:10.1016/s0040-1625(03)00152-5

Cited by 236 publications

(132 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

124

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…A methodological approach that helps achieve this outcome is to involve stakeholders in developing these future scenarios related to their system. We argue that when stakeholder-driven scenarios are used as a method of policy planning, managers get presented with several fundamentally different future perspectives to consider when planning policy (Postma and Liebl, 2005). These perspectives illustrate different probabilities, driven by stakeholder input, and are most reliable from the vantage point of that given stakeholder group.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accountability as a Governance Paradox in the Norwegian Salmon Aquaculture Industry

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The aquaculture industry in Norway currently represents 60% (US$ 5.4 billion) of Norwegian seafood exports. Of these, farmed Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) represents over 80% (850,000 tons). These production levels are driven by a strong and growing demand for farmed fish, and has a stated political goal of increased growth by a factor of 5 by 2050 in Norway alone. However, growth is potentially more challenging without the public support and trust in the governance regime that regulates the industry. The theoretical framework of this paper rests on accountability theory, whereby the research team highlighted and tested the paradox between the ideal and the actual practices on a group of stakeholders representing the aquaculture industry and municipal, regional, and sector management in northern Norway relative to their interactions and need thereof-vs. the expectations of the public. The findings of a workshop were used to develop a conceptual model and test our theory on stakeholder driven future scenarios using a combination of systems thinking and fuzzy cognitive mapping. We found that stakeholders and management alike in a workshop setting valued flexibility of legislation and expert opinions highly, whereby regulatory standardization is not prioritized-in line with soft accountability. The industry acknowledged, though, that the public perception and negative media attention of the industry, in turn depended on hard accountability.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accountability as a Governance Paradox in the Norwegian Salmon Aquaculture Industry

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Outlook of the European forest-based sector ties start to dominate over predetermined processes (Postma & Liebl 2005). In a broad meaning this is how we perceive our scenarios, useful for setting the scene for "what-if" reasoning, providing the basis for discussing potential trade-offs and synergies in the utilization of forest-based biomass.…”

Section: Iforest -Biogeosciences and Forestrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Outlook of the European forest-based sector: forest growth, harvest demand, wood-product markets, and forest carbon dynamics implications

Jonsson¹,

Blujdea²,

Fiorese³

et al. 2018

iForest

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A comprehensive assessment of European forest-based biomass harvest potentials, their future utilization and implications on international wood product markets and forest carbon dynamics requires the capability to model forest resource development as well as global markets for wood-based commodities with sufficient geographical and product detail and, most importantly, their interactions. To this aim, we apply a model framework fully integrating a European forest resource model and a global economic forest sector model. In a business-as-usual (BaU)

show abstract

“…It is not the purpose of scenarios to generate accurate predictions or forecasts (Van der Heijden 1996). Instead, they facilitate perceiving possible future developments over selected key dimensions (Raskin andKemp-Benedict 2004, Postma andLiebl 2005).…”

Section: Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term outlook for wood construction in Europe

Hurmekoski¹

2016

Diss. For.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The aim of the study is to examine the factors affecting the market potential of wood construction in Europe towards 2030. The study takes three complementary perspectives: Past trends and current structures, future trends and uncertainties and measures required to meet the long-term targets of the industries.The methodological framework builds on combining quantitative, descriptive and participative research approaches. By adopting methods and approaches from the field of foresight, the study aims to contribute also to the methodology development for long-term forest sector outlook studies.The trends and pressures in the operating environment of construction were found to primarily relate to the need for reducing the environmental impact of construction and improving the quality and productivity of construction. However, few of the trends would appear to have decisive impact on the diffusion of wood construction. That is, the positive drivers might not translate into improved competitive advantage for wood construction to the extent often expected, due to the lack of willingness or ability to pay for the attributes exceeding the requirements posed by the building regulations. Instead, the cultural and structural hindrances culminating to the fragmented structure and risk-averse characteristics of the construction and wood products industries seem to create significant inertia for the diffusion of wood construction.Based on scenario analysis, the outlook would appear to be dependent on the possible regulatory push for green building and on the possible changes in the strategic orientations of the industries. However, the empirical part indicated that the short-term strategy and policy measures suggested by experts are regarded either as unlikely or as unattractive by the industry stakeholders. The results therefore suggest that the diffusion of wood construction in Europe is likely to be a gradual process, subject to significant inertia, and restricted to a few niche sub-sectors and regions towards 2030.

show abstract

How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

Cited by 236 publications

References 0 publications

Accountability as a Governance Paradox in the Norwegian Salmon Aquaculture Industry

Accountability as a Governance Paradox in the Norwegian Salmon Aquaculture Industry

Outlook of the European forest-based sector: forest growth, harvest demand, wood-product markets, and forest carbon dynamics implications

Long-term outlook for wood construction in Europe

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About