How to Reach the New Green Deal Targets: Analysing the Necessary Burden Sharing within the EU Using a Multi-Model Approach

Abstract

The Green Deal of the European Union defines extremely ambitious climate targets for 2030 (−55% emissions compared to 1990) and 2050 (−100%), which go far beyond the current goals that the EU member states have agreed on thus far. The question of which sectors contribute how much has already been discussed, but is far from decided, while the question of which countries shoulder how much of the tightened reduction targets has hardly been discussed. We want to contribute significantly to answering these policy questions by analysing the necessary burden sharing within the EU from both an energy system and an overall macroeconomic perspective. For this purpose, we use the energy system model TIMES PanEU and the computational general equilibrium model NEWAGE. Our results show that excessively strong targets for the Emission Trading System (ETS) in 2030 are not system-optimal for achieving the 55% overall target, reductions should be made in such a way that an emissions budget ratio of 39 (ETS sector) to 61 (Non-ETS sector) results. Economically weaker regions would have to reduce their CO2 emissions until 2030 by up to 33% on top of the currently decided targets in the Effort Sharing Regulation, which leads to higher energy system costs as well as losses in gross domestic product (GDP). Depending on the policy scenario applied, GDP losses in the range of −0.79% and −1.95% relative to baseline can be found for single EU regions. In the long-term, an equally strict mitigation regime for all countries in 2050 is not optimal from a system perspective; total system costs would be higher by 1.5%. Instead, some countries should generate negative net emissions to compensate for non-mitigable residual emissions from other countries.

Impact of Economic Awareness on Sustainable Energy Consumption: Results of Research in a Segment of Polish Households

“…Through such concerted efforts, there is the potential to foster responsible energy consumption patterns among households, thereby exerting a positive influence on overall energy usage. By equipping individuals with knowledge and resources to make informed decisions about energy consumption, the New Green Deal aims to facilitate a widespread transition towards more sustainable and environmentally conscious lifestyles [102].…”

Green Deal and Carbon Neutrality Assessment of Czechia

“…The EC REF2020 scenario [18] and many studies (e.g. [4,27]) assume that the number of livestock and thus GHG emissions will be reduced by about half by 2050 due to lifestyle changes and better farming practices. Assumptions of GHG emissions from waste and of F-gases combine historical values from emission inventories [28] and their trends from the EC REF2020 scenario.…”

“…The EU-wide impact assessment of the Climate Target Plan [1] preceding Fit for 55 package and the subsequent 'core policy scenarios' with Member State-level details [2], have been followed by other studies. While Pietzcker et al [3] focus only on the on EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) sectors, Kattelmann et al [4] analyze the optimal share of GHG emission reductions between EU ETS and Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) sectors and the optimal GHG emission reductions in ESR sectors for each EU Member State. Other studies assess the impacts of the Fit for 55 package on a specific sector [5][6][7][8] or on one sector or more sectors in a single country, e.g [9,10].…”

Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation

“…The Green Deal of the European Union defines extremely ambitious climate targets for 2030 (−55% emissions compared to 1990) and 2050 (−100%). Kattelmann et al [2] focus on how the emission reduction targets shall be distributed across EU countries. The authors analyse the necessary burden sharing within the EU from both an energy system and an overall macroeconomic perspective.…”