How Uncertain Is Too Uncertain? Validity Tests for Early Resilient and Risk-Based Design Processes

Hulse, Daniel; Hoyle, Christopher; Tumer, Irem Y.; Goebel, Kai

doi:10.1115/1.4047346

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 59 publications

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“…This approach is suitable to be adopted for the development of an early-stage design framework. A further step is to assess whether taking into account the quantified uncertainty reliably produces meaningful results and leads to improved designs (see Hulse, et al 2020).…”

Section: Uncertainty In Early-stage Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early-Stage Design of Novel Vessels: How can we Take a Step Forward?

Charisi

Hopman

Kana

2022

Day 4 Wed, June 29, 2022

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The aim of this paper is to discuss the challenges associated with the early-stage design of novel and reliable vessels, and discuss the expected benefit of the application of multi-fidelity models in this specific problem. During early-stage design of novel or complex vessels, the naval architect aims to explore the multi-dimensional design space to identify the most promising solutions and identify key trade-offs. The goal is to understand the relationship between the design drivers and the key performance indicators (KPIs) which will lead to the formulation of the main design decisions. This analysis is typically performed with the help of bespoke early-stage design tools. Traditionally, early-stage design tools are computationally cheap, but lack in accuracy. These tools have been developed based on gained design knowledge such as empirical and semi-empirical methods, historical data, and experts’ opinions. However, for the design of novel vessels, these tools are not sufficient because they have typically been developed based on the experience gained from traditional vessels. The early-stage design of novel vessels is challenging because there is very limited existing knowledge about both the design drivers and the KPIs due to their inherent nature of being “novel”. The first part of the paper discusses the challenges associated with the design of novel vessels. Two novel hull designs were examined as qualitative case studies, namely the USS Zumwalt (DDG1000) and Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) – Independent variant, to identify the design drivers and KPIs connected with the design of novel vessels by following a bottom-up approach. Ensuring the vessel’s reliability is a major design aspect for all novel designs. To achieve this, analysis via high fidelity tools is traditionally required. Typically, high fidelity tools are used later on in the design process due to their high computational requirements and the detailed design information required. However, the application of multi-fidelity models (MFMs) in the design process is a promising technique in order to introduce high fidelity models earlier on in the design process. The second part of the paper focuses on an extended literature review on the application of the multi-fidelity models to the design of complex engineering systems. Finally, the most promising methods for this specific problem are identified and discussed.

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Section: Uncertainty In Early-stage Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early-Stage Design of Novel Vessels: How can we Take a Step Forward?

Charisi

Hopman

Kana

2022

Day 4 Wed, June 29, 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Synthetic Fault Mode Generation for Resilience Analysis and Failure Mechanism Discovery

Hulse

Irshad

2022

Journal of Mechanical Design

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Traditional risk-based design processes seek to mitigate operational hazards by manually identifying possible faults and corresponding mitigation strategies–a tedious process which critically relies on the designer's limited knowledge. Resilience-based design, on the other hand, seeks to embody generic hazard-mitigating properties in the system to mitigate unknown hazards, often by modelling the system's response to potential randomly-generated hazardous events. This work creates a framework to adapt these scenario generation approaches to the traditional risk-based design process to synthetically generate fault modes, by representing them as a unique combination of internal component fault states which can then be injected and simulated in a model of the system failure dynamics. Based on these simulations, the designer may then better understand the underlying failure mechanisms and mitigate them by-design. The performance of this approach is evaluated in a model of an autonomous rover, where cluster analysis shows that elaborating the faulty state-space in the drive system using this approach uncovers a wider range of possible hazardous trajectories and failure consequences within each trajectory. However, this increase in hazard information gained from exhaustive mode sampling comes at a high computational expense, highlighting the need for advanced, efficient methods to search and sample the faulty state-space.

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A Survey of Function Failure Identification and Propagation Analysis Methods for System Design

Jensen,

Van Bossuyt,

Bello

et al. 2024

Journal of Computing and Information Science in Engineering

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In the context of model-based product and system design, the capability to assess the impact of potential component faults, undesired interactions, and fault propagation is important for design decision-making. Addressing these potential negative outcomes should occur as early in the design process as possible to enable designers to make impactful changes to the design. To this end, a set of tools and methods have been developed over the last 20 years that leverage a function-based approach assessing the potential faults and fault propagation and develop system health management strategies. These tools and methods must overcome challenges of high abstraction and satisfaction of safety or risk requirements with limited design specification. This paper provides a detailed survey of a particular function-based analysis tool as a lens to understanding the challenges for other tools in this domain. Specifically, development and evolution of the Function Failure Identification and Propagation Framework (FFIP) is used as a lens to survey the challenges of this field. The objective of this paper is to explore the specific challenges and advancements of the FFIP framework and related tools that address similar modeling and analysis challenges. We provide an overall categorization and summary of the research efforts to date and identify specific known limitations and unaddressed challenges in the area of design-stage system risk and safety analysis.

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How Uncertain Is Too Uncertain? Validity Tests for Early Resilient and Risk-Based Design Processes

Cited by 5 publications

References 59 publications

Early-Stage Design of Novel Vessels: How can we Take a Step Forward?

Early-Stage Design of Novel Vessels: How can we Take a Step Forward?

Synthetic Fault Mode Generation for Resilience Analysis and Failure Mechanism Discovery

A Survey of Function Failure Identification and Propagation Analysis Methods for System Design

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