How Unexpected Was the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave?

McKinnon, Karen A.; Simpson, Isla R.

doi:10.1029/2022gl100380

Cited by 48 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…A recent study estimated that this heat wave was about two degrees Fahrenheit warmer than it would have been without human influence on the climate (Bercos-Hickey et al 2022), consistent with the increase in mean temperature. An event of this magnitude is likely to occur once in 1000 to 100,000 years (McKinnon andSimpson 2022, Thompson et al 2022). A heat dome would have occurred without climate change, but maximum temperatures would not have been as high (McKinnon and Simpson 2022).…”

Section: Pacific Northwest Heat Wave Of June 2021mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An event of this magnitude is likely to occur once in 1000 to 100,000 years (McKinnon andSimpson 2022, Thompson et al 2022). A heat dome would have occurred without climate change, but maximum temperatures would not have been as high (McKinnon and Simpson 2022). estimated that a heat wave of similar magnitude will recur about once in six years by the end of the twenty-first century if concentrations of greenhouse gases do not decrease.…”

Section: Pacific Northwest Heat Wave Of June 2021mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sixth Oregon climate assessment

Fleishman¹

2023

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Consistent with its charge under Oregon House Bill 3543, the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) conducts a biennial assessment of the state of climate change science, including biological, physical, and social science, as it relates to Oregon and the likely effects of climate change on Oregon. This sixth Oregon Climate Assessment builds on the previous assessments by continuing to evaluate past and projected future changes in Oregon’s climate and water supply. Like the fifth assessment, it is structured with the goal of supporting the state’s mitigation planning for natural hazards and implementation of the 2021 Oregon Climate Change Adaptation Framework.

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Section: Pacific Northwest Heat Wave Of June 2021mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Pacific Northwest Heat Wave Of June 2021mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sixth Oregon climate assessment

Fleishman¹

2023

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“…It is clear that ensemble sizes in the standard CMIP database are not large enough to construct such distributions and provide robust attribution statements. However, recent developments of larger climate model ensemble simulations (up to 40 individual realizations) do provide some insight as to the rarity of such events (McKinnon & Simpson, 2022). Despite these limitations of conventional attribution methods, it is highly likely that anthropogenic climate change influenced the 2021 PNW heatwave.…”

Section: Statistical Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Bercos‐Hickey

O’Brien

Wehner

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Daily maximum temperatures during the 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest United States and Canada shattered century old records. Multiple causal factors, including anthropogenic climate change, contributed to these high temperatures, challenging traditional methods of attributing human influence. We demonstrate that the observed 2021 daily maximum temperatures are far above the bounds of Generalized Extreme Value distributions fitted from historical data. Hence, confidence in Granger causal inference statements about the human influence on this heatwave is low. Alternatively, we present a more conditional hindcast attribution study using two regional models. We performed ensembles of simulations of the heatwave to investigate how the event would have changed if it had occurred without anthropogenic climate change and with future warming. We found that global warming caused a ∼0.8°C–1°C increase in heatwave temperatures. Future warming would lead to a ∼5°C increase in heatwave temperature by the end of the 21st century.

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“…Station data for many parts of Europe show an increase in day-to-day temperature variability within the summer season since the 1960s (Krauskopf and Huth, 2022), while increased temperature variability is necessary to account for the magnitude of the 2003 European heat wave (Schär et al, 2004). On the other hand, McKinnon and Simpson (2022) and Thompson et al (2022) found no evidence for faster warming of extremes, relative to the mean for the Pacific North-West.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

North-West Europe hottest summer temperatures rising much faster than the mean

Patterson

2022

Preprint

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Europe has seen a rapid increase in the frequency and intensity of hot extremes in recent decades. In this study it is shown, using ERA5 reanalysis data 1960-2021, that the hottest summer days in North-West Europe are warming faster than the mean summer day. The magnitude of the difference in maximum and mean temperature trends cannot be explained by natural variability alone. Worryingly, this trend difference is not captured by comprehensive climate models. The dynamics of conditions leading up to the hottest days are investigated using lagged composite analysis. It is suggested that the difference in maximum and mean trends can be explained by a differential rate of warming between subtropical and mid-latitudes. That is, hot extremes over North-West Europe are often driven by advection of warm air from further south. Subtropical latitudes are warming faster than the mid-latitudes, hence the difference in temperature between ambient mid-latitude air and air advected from lower latitudes, is increasing. These findings suggest that North-West Europe will continue to experience ever more extreme summer temperatures and the findings provide motivation for further research into understanding differences between North Atlantic temperature / circulation trends in models and observations.

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How Unexpected Was the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave?

Cited by 48 publications

References 28 publications

Sixth Oregon climate assessment

Sixth Oregon climate assessment

Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

North-West Europe hottest summer temperatures rising much faster than the mean

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