How vulnerable are emerging markets to external shocks?

Almansour, Aseel; Aslam, Aqib; Bluedorn, John; Duttagupta, Rupa

doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2015.03.009

Cited by 35 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Holding the geographical distance fixed, they show that the growth rates of regions sharing similar institutional characteristics tend to converge more rapidly to each other. Meanwhile, there are also studies investigating the effect of spillovers on growth by Almansour, Aslam, Bluedorn and Duttagupta (2015), on total factors productivity by Fujimori and Sato (2015), as well as on the production process by Dietzenbacher (2000), however none of these studies uses a formal spatial econometrics approach and examines the effect of institutional spillovers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic growth and convergence: Do institutional proximity and spillovers matter?

Ahmad

Hall

2017

Journal of Policy Modeling

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This paper extends the existing studies on institutions-growth nexus in two ways: firstly, it estimates a growth model that is spatially augmented to capture the countries' dependence, and secondly it measures the countries' dependence using a newly proposed concept called institutional proximity, in addition to the commonly used geography. Spatial Durbin model, that includes not only spatially lagged dependent variable but also spatially lagged explanatory variables, is shown to be the most appropriate to describe the panel dataset used in this study, which comprises of observations from 58 developing countries for year 1984-2007. The results find that institutions, specifically the property rights institutions, matter for growth in developing countries. The results also find an evidence of indirect institutional spillovers where institutions in a country lead to growth improvement in the country and subsequently generate positive spillover effects on neighbors' economic growth. The results also yield robust support to the concept of augmented convergence process as a result of neighboring effects and its speed is relatively higher than the conventional β-convergence of a standard growth model. The greater convergence speed is consistent across a number of spatial models using both geographical and institutional proximity measures. The paper finally concludes with several policy implications for developing countries as far as the effects of institutional proximity and spillovers on growth and convergence are concerned.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic growth and convergence: Do institutional proximity and spillovers matter?

Ahmad

Hall

2017

Journal of Policy Modeling

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“…The baseline forecast range presented above was informed by a macroeconomic model for countries in South Asia that analyzes the impact of adverse shocks in the external environment, but additionally, incorporates a shock to the domestic services sectors (Burns et al 2019). To get a qualitative sense of how large the external components of these shocks may be, we isolate the external contribution from this exercise and compare it to the one from a Bayesian vector autoregression model quantifying the impact of an expected deterioration of trade, financial linkages, and investment sentiments (Almansour et al 2015). The latter model was earlier used to decompose India's deviation from average growth in 2019 into external and domestic factors (World Bank 2019).…”

Section: A Sharp Drop In External Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Appendix A2.1 The simulation of the two external scenarios for India and Sri Lanka are based on the model and estimation strategy of Almansour et al (2015), who propose a Bayesian vector autoregression model with financial and real variables to quantify the contribution of external conditions on growth in emerging markets. The model features an external and internal block and assumes that global economic conditions are exogenous to the growth of emerging markets on impact.…”

Section: Technical Appendixmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additional drag on growth from external factors in 2020Percentage pointsGlobal spillover model and MFMod Bayesian VARNotes: The figure shows the impact of external spillovers on GDP in India and Sri Lanka using a macro and a VAR model (percent). The model and estimation follow closelyAlmansour et al (2015). The contribution of external factors in calendar year 2020 is based on an out-of-sample forecast conditional on two scenarios of external variables.…”

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South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2020 : The Cursed Blessing of Public Banks

2020

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Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 23 22 21 20 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.

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“…As a recent study by Almansour et al (2015) finds external economic conditions have significant effects on emerging market economies so on Turkey. Therefore, current account problem has recently become important for Turkey.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Unravelling the structure of Turkish exports: Impediments and policy

Günçavdı

Kayam

2017

Journal of Policy Modeling

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In this study we reveal the structure of exports in an emerging economy, Turkey, to shed light on the impediments not only this country but also other developing countries might face in pursuit of increasing exports to tackle their current account problems. We employ panel data econometrics for estimating exports, labour and imports market specifications simultaneously to address endogeneity issues. The data covers 13 manufacturing industry sectors, 25 main export markets over the period 2000-2011. Our findings reveal that unlike conventional assumptions, export supply is not infinitely elastic, and the supply side of the market plays a critical role in reviving export earnings in Turkey.

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How vulnerable are emerging markets to external shocks?

Cited by 35 publications

References 6 publications

Economic growth and convergence: Do institutional proximity and spillovers matter?

Economic growth and convergence: Do institutional proximity and spillovers matter?

South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2020 : The Cursed Blessing of Public Banks

Unravelling the structure of Turkish exports: Impediments and policy

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