How Well Have Projected Lung Cancer Rates Predicted the Actual Observed Rates?

Luo, Qingwei; Steinberg, Julia; Yu, Xue Qin; Canfell, Karen; O’Connell, Dianne

doi:10.31557/apjcp.2021.22.2.437

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…The Nordpred package allows for two additional assumptions, namely, that recent trends are more relevant to the future evolution of risk than those in the distant past and that the impact of the underlying factors will progressively diminish (the basis for the arbitrary reduction in the "drift" component of the model in every 5 years). There is no single "optimal" method for projecting LC rates that fits all situations, as the influences of evolving risk factors, diagnostic practice, and treatment are complex and very difficult to predict and capture [8]. Finally, in the last decades, the molecular characterisation prognosis of LC has dramatically changed, becoming an essential component of the therapy decisions [36].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Epidemiology of Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain: Updated Information (1982–2021) and Predictions up to 2046

Cayuela,

Jara-Palomares,

Otero

et al. 2023

Respiration

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Background: Patterns of lung cancer (LC) mortality are important for planning health services and resource management. Objectives: We aimed to provide updated information (1982–2021) and project (LC) mortality rates in Spain (2022–2046). Method: We analysed data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute about mortality in LC (1982–2021), and we made predictions for the period 2022–2046. Results: In 2021, a total of 22,413 people died of LC, and for the period 2042–2046, the projected annual average was 25,549 deaths. In males, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) (overall) after an initial period of increase (1982–1996, 2.2%) declined until 2021 (−1.4% per year), and this decline is expected to continue in the future (−1.9% per year during the period 2022–2046), although the projected decline is slightly higher (−2.0% during the period 2022–2046). In men, ASMR (all ages) after an initial period of increase (1982–1996, 2.2%) declined until 2021 (−1.4% per year), and this decline is expected to continue in the future during the period 2022–2046. In women, both the overall and truncated rates (35–64) increase during the period 1982–2021 (4.1% and 6.0% per year, respectively), and projected rates showed that both will decrease during the period 2022–2046, although more markedly in the truncated rates (−1.9% per year) than in the overall rates (−0.5% per year). Conclusions: Our projections show the magnitude of a steady upward trend in LC mortality among women in Spain that appears to be beginning to reverse from the current decade (similar to that observed for incidence).

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In women, on the other hand, after an initial period of stagnation, there has been a clear increase since the early 1990s [6,7]. Although some studies predict LC mortality in other countries [3,[8][9][10][11], to our knowledge, there are currently no studies that predict LC mortality in Spain in the coming years [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiology of Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain: Updated Information (1982–2021) and Predictions up to 2046

Cayuela,

Jara-Palomares,

Otero

et al. 2023

Respiration

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“…So far, the role of genetic factors is relatively poorly understood. Frequent occurrence of lung cancer in some families is associated with a genetically determined tendency to over-activate carcinogenic compounds contained in tobacco smoke or to remove these compounds too slowly from the body (Jung, 2021;Luo et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Factors for the Diagnosis of Lung Cancer in Poland: A Large-Scale, Population-Based Case-Control Study

Lewandowska¹,

Lewandowski

Zych

et al. 2022

Asian Pac J Cancer Prev

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Objective: Lung cancer is one of the most common and deadly malignant neoplasms. Currently, it is one of the main causes of cancer deaths worldwide. The study aimed to identify and evaluate patient characteristics, demographic and lifestyle factors that are associated with lung cancer at diagnosis. Methods: The study included 400 patients diagnosed with lung cancer and 400 within the control group. The research was based on a clinical, direct, individual, structured, in-depth and focused interview. Assessment of activity and BMI was used according to WHO recommendations, as well as the expert system. Results: The mean age of the patients was 74.53 ± 7.86 years, while in the control group 59.5 (7.93). There was a strong positive relationship between the incidence of tuberculosis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and the risk of lung cancer (p <0.001). The risk of lung cancer was significant in the case of smoking 20 or more than 20 cigarettes a day and smoking for more than 20 years (p = 0.01). Conclusions: Active and passive smoking, are a leading risk factor for lung cancer, which shows that understanding of the long-term and fatal effects of smoking is still very low in society. No significant correlation has been found between lifestyle and risk of lung cancer. However, there was a strong positive correlation between tuberculosis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and the risk of lung cancer. Occupation is a predisposing factor for lung cancer occurrence.

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How Well Have Projected Lung Cancer Rates Predicted the Actual Observed Rates?

Cited by 2 publications

References 19 publications

Epidemiology of Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain: Updated Information (1982–2021) and Predictions up to 2046

Epidemiology of Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain: Updated Information (1982–2021) and Predictions up to 2046

Risk Factors for the Diagnosis of Lung Cancer in Poland: A Large-Scale, Population-Based Case-Control Study

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