How will last-mile delivery be shaped in 2040? A Delphi-based scenario study

Peppel, Marcel; Ringbeck, Jürgen; Spinler, Stefan

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121493

Cited by 42 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 97 publications

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, further studies should also investigate the case of a publicly built SPL network that can be used by LSPs at a charge. For instance, municipalities might mandate LSPs to collaborate (Peppel et al, 2022). In addition, our model assumes that all SPLs are uniform, whereas it would be beneficial to adapt the number and size of compartments to local requirements and growth prospects.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The SPL supplier "SwipBox" constantly improved the SPL technology so that recipients can access SPLs with their own app while LSPs benefit from the fast installation of SPLs in less than five minutes (SwipBox, 2021), enabling a fast extension of SPL networks. SPLs are expected to remain an integral part as LMD (Peppel et al, 2022). Examples of SPLs used by both traditional LSPs and e-retailers that have entered the lastmile market (Ducret, 2014) are shown in Figure 1.…”

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confidence: 99%

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The impact of optimal parcel locker locations on costs and the environment

Peppel

Spinler

2022

IJPDLM

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PurposeLast-mile delivery is associated with a negative environmental impact and high costs. The purpose of this paper is to develop an approach to designing stationary parcel locker (SPL) networks while minimizing both CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions and costs during delivery and pick-up.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses a multinomial logit model to evaluate recipients' willingness to use SPLs based on their availability at home and travel distance. To determine optimal SPL locations, this study formulates a mixed-integer linear programming model.FindingsThe empirical study of different regional clusters reveals that optimal SPL locations can generate cost savings of up to 11.0%. SPLs have a positive impact on total CO2e emission savings in urban areas (i.e. up to 2.5%), but give rise to additional emissions (i.e. 4.6%) in less populated areas due to longer travel distances during the pick-up process.Originality/valueThis paper optimizes SPL locations and the ecological effect of SPLs by minimizing emissions and costs simultaneously. Furthermore, it extends existing discrete choice models by also including recipients' availability at home, increasing the accuracy of recipients' preferences. So far, the effect of SPLs has been studied for metropolitan areas only. A global logistics service provider shared a real dataset which allows us to study seven different regional clusters ranging from rural areas to large cities. Thus, this study contributes to the field of sustainable urban logistics.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of optimal parcel locker locations on costs and the environment

Peppel

Spinler

2022

IJPDLM

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“…LMDe refers to the activities and processes involved in serving consumers by handing over the ordered parcels at their location of choice. It is estimated that LMDe accounts for almost 50% of the total shipping costs (Peppel et al, 2022), while the demand for LMDe is expected to grow globally by 78% by 2030 (World Economic Forum, 2020). Many omni-channel retailers capitalize on the resources already provided by their established stores, a concept known as buy-online-pickup-in-store (BOPS) or in-store C&C. Gao and Su (2017) questioned the effectiveness of BOPS for products which already sell well in physical stores, or for existing customers, especially since fulfilment from store may incur higher costs.…”

Section: Last Mile Deliverymentioning

confidence: 99%

A configurational approach to last mile logistics practices and omni-channel firm characteristics for competitive advantage: a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis

Risberg

Jafari

Sandberg

2023

IJPDLM

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PurposeThe purpose is to explore how the configurations resulting from the interplay of last mile logistics practices and firm characteristics are associated with firm performance in an omni-channel context.Design/methodology/approachDrawing on configuration theory (CT), the authors use fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to analyze data on 72 Swedish omni-channel retailers.FindingsFour configurations are identified—store-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises (SME's), online-oriented SME's, large store-oriented retailers and large online-oriented retailers. The results show that while offering a wide range of delivery options is necessary to achieve high performance, it is not sufficient, and that returns and fulfilment should be simultaneously considered. For instance, large high-performers leverage their stores and warehouses for fulfilment and returns in an integrated way irrespective of sales channel-mix. However, SME's appear to focus on fulfilment simplicity with less-costly delivery alternatives, where store-oriented SME's leverage stores and the online-oriented counterparts leverage warehouses. Consequently, the authors develop a configurational taxonomy and discuss a set of recipes which provide insights for researchers and practitioners.Research limitations/implicationsThe study provides a more comprehensive understanding of the pathways to success, and potential pitfalls, in the last mile logistics context.Originality/valueThis study applies a novel methodology in the field, namely fsQCA, to explore the paths to competitive advantage. It covers a wide range of stages in the LM including back-end fulfilment, delivery and returns. It also provides insight into the logistics practices of both SME's and large omni-channel retailers.

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“…The Delphi survey was administered in the third stage adopting two iterative rounds to achieve convergence by identifying drivers and trends. In a study on last‐mile delivery in 2040, Peppel et al (2022) developed scenarios by first conducting a literature review and formulating projections, to then be validated through an expert workshop. The Delphi survey was here administered in two iterative rounds to achieve convergence of opinions, and the results were used to create future scenarios through narrative‐descriptive analysis and clustering, considering variables such as plausibility and consistency.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Facilitating spatial consensus in complex future scenarios through Real‐Time Spatial Delphi: A novel web‐based open platform

Calleo

Zio

Pilla

2023

Futures & Foresight Science

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The Delphi technique is a commonly applied method for (among the various uses) achieving consensus from a group of knowledgeable experts. This approach is frequently employed to generate and prioritize ideas, identify potential solutions, and make decisions in various contexts through a series of iterative rounds. In the Futures Studies (FS) context, the Delphi method is regularly used in combination with the scenario method to explore different futures, implementing strategies in the present with the aim of averting dystopian outcomes and/or facilitating normative scenarios. Nevertheless, assuming that the convergence of opinions can also occur in spatial contexts, a shortcoming of the method is the deficiency of spatial references useful in the planning process. In this paper, we introduce the Real‐Time Geo‐Spatial Consensus System, a novel web‐based open platform useful to develop Delphi‐based Spatial Scenarios (DBSS), in an interactive and innovative interface. The platform adopts the Real‐Time spatial Delphi technique to obtain a spatial convergence of opinions among experts to offer researchers, decision‐makers, policymakers, and local authorities a new tool for complex spatial decisions. The primary innovations of the platform, including its architecture, statistical algorithms, tools, features, and outcomes, are demonstrated through a preliminary application focused on potential future climatic hazards in Dublin, Ireland.

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How will last-mile delivery be shaped in 2040? A Delphi-based scenario study

Cited by 42 publications

References 97 publications

The impact of optimal parcel locker locations on costs and the environment

The impact of optimal parcel locker locations on costs and the environment

A configurational approach to last mile logistics practices and omni-channel firm characteristics for competitive advantage: a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis

Facilitating spatial consensus in complex future scenarios through Real‐Time Spatial Delphi: A novel web‐based open platform

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