How will renewables expansion and hydrocarbon decline impact security? Analysis from a socio-technical transitions perspective

Scenario analysis of the socioeconomic impacts of achieving zero-carbon energy by 2030

“…Productivity and economic growth: The impacts on productivity and GDP growth depend on the costs and competitiveness of low-carbon technologies. Some studies project a small reduction in economic growth from ambitious climate policies, while others argue that innovation can even boost productivity in the long run [ 7 , 9 ].…”

“…There is overwhelming scientific consensus that global climate change poses catastrophic risks to human society and natural ecosystems. According to the IPCC Special Report, limiting warming to 1.5 °C requires cutting global CO2 emissions to net zero by 2050 [ [1] , [2] , [3] , [4] , [5] , [6] , [7] , [8] , [9] , [10] , [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] , [17] , [18] , [19] ]. In response, many countries have set ambitious targets for zero-carbon energy and deep decarbonization to meet the Paris Agreement goals.…”

Conceptualising energy nationalism in the context of climate change: framework and review

“…The reliability of supplies and geopolitical benefits from the export of natural resources are thus prioritised in the public space (Fischhendler and Nathan, 2014). Although the concept of energy security may also include other dimensions (military issues, electricity system operability, internal stability, cyber security) (Kivimaa and Sivonen, 2023), it is in the context of international tensions (Russia, China, United States) and treating energy as a tool for making politics and expanding power (Skalamera, 2023), that the geopolitical dimension and "national interests" come to the fore. Moreover, as the "securatisation" discourse is dominant in the public space, a strategy based on "the security rationality" appears in the context of climate threats (Fagan, 2023).…”