a b s t r a c tThe prehistoric establishment and expansion of permanent settlements on the Northern Channel Islands of southern California generally follows a pattern predicted by the population ecology model, the ideal free distribution (IFD). We determine this by comparing the abundant archaeological record of these Islands against a careful quantification of habitat suitability using areal photography, satellite imagery, and field studies. We assess watershed area, length of rocky intertidal zone, length of sandy beach for plank canoe pull-outs and area of off-shore kelp beds, for 46 coastal locations. A simple descriptive analysis supports key IFD predictions. A Bayesian model fitted with the Gibbs sampler allows us to reconstruct the Native assessment of habitat that appears to underlie this process. Use of the Gibbs sampler mitigates the impact of missing data, censored variables, and uncertainty in radiocarbon dates; it allows us to predict where new settlements may yet be discovered. Theoretically, our results support a behavioral ecology interpretation of settlement history, human population expansion, and economic intensification in this region. They also demonstrate Bayesian analytical methods capable of making full use of the information available in archaeological datasets.Ó 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Introduction and problemThe Native Americans who moved from the mainland to settle the Northern Channel Islands of southern California knew well the country they were settling. By first recorded permanent settlement ($8000-7000 cal. years BP) they had been exploring and seasonally exploiting the resources of the islands for as much as 5000 years Kennett, 2005;. Subsequent to that first settlement further Island colonization of coastal sites at the mouths of major drainages drew on local knowledge gained through even more lengthy experience. Settlers were familiar with the suitability of the habitats they were about to occupy and, we might predict, they established residential sites in an orderly process of adaptive decision-making: Settle first in the most salubrious location. When, with growing exploitation or crowding, its resources were depressed and its value declined to match the next-ranked locale, establish a new settlement there. As population grew this process repeated, adding further new settlements in locations ordered by habitat suitability. In parallel, we expect overall quality of life in all occupied locales declined due to reductions in the availability of or access to critical resources. This process is neatly captured in a behavioral ecology model: the ideal free distribution (IFD, Fretwell and Lucas, 1969). Analysis of environmental and archaeological data from the Northern Channel Islands indicates that colonization there follows IFD predictions. To demonstrate this, we first describe the prehistory of the Northern Channel Islands. We then introduce the IFD, with the goal of predicting how population growth, intensified use and declining suitability generate a predictab...