Human CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions Have Little Effect on Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>

Abstract

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agrees human CO 2 is only 5 percent and natural CO 2 is 95 percent of the CO 2 inflow into the atmosphere. The ratio of human to natural CO 2 in the atmosphere must equal the ratio of the inflows. Yet IPCC claims human CO 2 has caused all the rise in atmospheric CO 2 above 280 ppm, which is now 130 ppm or 32 percent of today's atmospheric CO 2. To cause the human 5 percent to become 32 percent in the atmosphere, the IPCC model treats human and natural CO 2 differently, which is impossible because the molecules are identical. IPCC's Bern model artificially traps human CO 2 in the atmosphere while it lets natural CO 2 flow freely out of the atmosphere. By contrast, a simple Physics Model treats all CO 2 molecules the same, as it should, and shows how CO 2 flows through the atmosphere and produces a balance level where outflow equals inflow. Thereafter, if inflow is constant, level remains constant. The Physics Model has only one hypothesis, that outflow is proportional to level. The Physics Model exactly replicates the 14C data from 1970 to 2014 with only two physical parameters: balance level and e-time. The 14C data trace how CO 2 flows out of the atmosphere. The Physics Model shows the 14 CO 2 e-time is a constant 16.5 years. Other data show e-time for 12CO 2 is about 4 to 5 years. IPCC claims human CO 2 reduces ocean buffer capacity. But that would increase e-time. The constant e-time proves IPCC's claim is false. IPCC argues that the human-caused reduction of 14C and 13C in the atmosphere prove human CO 2 causes all the increase in atmospheric CO 2. However, numbers show these isotope data support the Physics Model and reject the IPCC model. The Physics Model shows how inflows of human and natural CO 2 into the atmosphere set balance levels proportional to their inflows. Each balance level remains constant if its inflow remains constant. Continued constant CO 2 emissions do not add more CO 2 to the atmosphere. No CO 2 accumulates in the atmosphere. Present human CO 2 inflow produces a balance level of about 18 ppm. Present natural CO 2 inflow produces a balance level of about 392 ppm. Human CO 2 is insignificant to the increase of CO 2 in the atmosphere. Increased natural CO 2 inflow has increased the level of CO 2 in the atmosphere.

Correcting an Error in Some Interpretations of Atmospheric <sup>14</sup>C Data

“…Essenhigh [1], Harde [2,3], and Berry [4] took the isotope ratio curve shown in Figure 1 to be the 14 C concentration curve, which is correctly shown in Figure 2. Essenhigh labels an axis " 14 C concentration" for a plot that is clearly of ∆ 14 C. Harde and Berry label their axes correctly but misinterpret the meaning and have asserted wrongly that ∆ 14 C is equivalent to concentration (personal communications).…”

“…A broad consensus of both climate scientists and the public accepts that human activities such as burning fossil fuels are responsible for the worrisome increase in atmospheric CO 2 over the last century. Nonetheless a few continue to argue that the increase is "natural" and outside of human control [1][2][3][4]. While extensive rebuttals of these arguments have been made elsewhere [5,6], the common motivating factor for the maverick papers appears not to have been identified before now: all make the same mistake in interpreting 14 C data collected and presented by others.…”

How Much Human-Caused Global Warming Should We Expect with Business-As-Usual (BAU) Climate Policies? A Semi-Empirical Assessment

“…Well, if Paradigm 4 were correct, then there should be no relationship (or at best a weak one). In that case, arguably the rest of the analysis in this paper would be largely redundant, and we could say that there should be no (or very little) human-caused global warming up to 2100 [82][83][84][87][88][89]114], although it would not preclude the possibility of natural global warming. However, as explained above, this would also imply an average airborne fraction of 0 or close to 0.…”

“…The annual changes in atmospheric concentrations show quite a lot of variability from year-to-year, which is not apparent from the annual anthropogenic emissions, and the airborne fraction actually varies quite a bit from year-to-year, as has been noted by others (e.g., refs. [74][75][76][77][78][79][80][81][82]). This suggests that natural variability actually plays quite a substantial role in atmospheric CO 2 concentration trends.…”

“…Moreover, if it were to transpire that all (or even most) of the recent increase in atmospheric CO 2 were a natural phenomenon, then this would completely undermine the entire basis for claiming that society's CO 2 emissions are causing "human-caused global warming". Therefore, whenever a researcher publishes an analysis suggesting that some or all of the recent increase could be natural in origin, such as the references cited above [76,[78][79][80][81][82] and also refs. [74,75,77,[83][84][85][86][87][88][89], their arguments are attacked with a particular vehemence, e.g., [90][91][92][93][94][95][96][97][98][99].…”