Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003

Abstract

The summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe since at latest ad 1500, and unusually large numbers of heat-related deaths were reported in France, Germany and Italy. It is an ill-posed question whether the 2003 heatwave was caused, in a simple deterministic sense, by a modification of the external influences on climate--for example, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere--because almost any such weather event might have occurred by chance in an unmodified climate. However, it is possible to estimate by how much human activities may have increased the risk of the occurrence of such a heatwave. Here we use this conceptual framework to estimate the contribution of human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other pollutants to the risk of the occurrence of unusually high mean summer temperatures throughout a large region of continental Europe. Using a threshold for mean summer temperature that was exceeded in 2003, but in no other year since the start of the instrumental record in 1851, we estimate it is very likely (confidence level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude.

Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe

“…36). Around 60% of the people who died in France were aged 75 or above during the 2003 heat wave 37 , and the risk of this kind of episodes has been at least doubled simply as a result of temperature rise 38 . Indeed, the IPCC AR4 states with very high confidence that climate change contributes to the global burden of disease and to increased mortality 5 , and particularly that the higher frequency of heat waves and the excess deaths associated with the European 2003 event are likely to be linked to climate change 1 .…”

“Grand Paris”: regional landscape change to adapt city to climate warming

“…Heat-waves like that of 2003 in Europe would become common: in the A2 emission scenario, with an average of 30 days of heat-wave conditions in the north of France (Déqué 2007). Limiting the consequences of such heat-waves is a major health challenge (Scott et al 2004): 8,000 deaths were attributed to the 2003 heat-wave in the Paris urban area (Fouillet et al 2006).…”

Percepción al cambio climático y a la gestión del agua: aportes de las estrategias metodológicas cualitativas para su comprensión

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INTRODUCCIÓNSe ha reconocido internacionalmente que el cambio climático introduce una mayor variabilidad climática (PARRY et al, 2007), la cual aumenta la incertidumbre sobre el régimen hidrológico de los cursos de agua e impacta negativamente la disponibilidad del recurso hídrico (BATES et al, 2008), por ejemplo introduce cambios en el patrón de caudales y cantidad de agua en los ríos (WHITFIELD et al, 2002) e intensifica los eventos extremos (STOTT et al, 2004). Con el objeto de disminuir, evitar, o sacar ventaja de estos posibles impactos se promueve desde la esfera política y científica la definición de estrategias de mitigación y adaptación (SMIT & PILIFISOVA, 2003;PIELKE et al, 2007).

Ambas estrategias actúan complementariamente para hacer frente a este fenómeno, y buscan cambios conductuales y culturales por parte de todos los miembros de la sociedad.

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