Human Factors of Fire Occurrence in the Mediterranean

Leone, Vittorio; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Martín, M. Pilar; Camarero, J. Julio; Vilar, Lara

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-01754-4_11

Cited by 46 publications

(38 citation statements)

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“…We identified factors based on previous literature reviews about fire causes and fire modelling (Leone et al, 2003(Leone et al, , 2009Martínez et al, 2004Martínez et al, , 2009Vélez, 2009), where the theoretical or expected relationships between fires and each factor/variable in Spain and Mediterranean countries were explained. Then, each of those explanatory factors was measured as a numeric indicator (direct or surrogate) from available datasets.…”

Section: Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is another improvement over the previous study of Martínez et al (2009) in which a 13-yr series from 1987 to 2000 was used. These data were obtained from the Spanish Forest Fire Report Database, one of the best and longest fire statistics in Europe (Leone et al, 2009). A total of 383 657 fire events has been gathered and considered in the database, regardless of their size.…”

Section: Study Area and Fire Databasementioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is estimated that more than 90 % of forest fires are caused by people in European Mediterranean countries (Leone et al, 2009;Vélez, 2009;FAO, 2007). Additionally, these areas have experienced important socioeconomic transformations over the last few decades, including land abandonment and/or higher tourist and urban pressures on the forest areas, which could imply higher ignition risk.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling long-term fire occurrence factors in Spain by accounting for local variations with geographically weighted regression

Fernández¹,

Chuvieco

Koutsias³

2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

130

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Humans are responsible for most forest fires in Europe, but anthropogenic factors behind these events are still poorly understood. We tried to identify the driving factors of human-caused fire occurrence in Spain by applying two different statistical approaches. Firstly, assuming stationary processes for the whole country, we created models based on multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression to find factors associated with fire density and fire presence, respectively. Secondly, we used geographically weighted regression (GWR) to better understand and explore the local and regional variations of those factors behind human-caused fire occurrence. The number of human-caused fires occurring within a 25-yr period (1983–2007) was computed for each of the 7638 Spanish mainland municipalities, creating a binary variable (fire/no fire) to develop logistic models, and a continuous variable (fire density) to build standard linear regression models. A total of 383 657 fires were registered in the study dataset. The binary logistic model, which estimates the probability of having/not having a fire, successfully classified 76.4% of the total observations, while the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model explained 53% of the variation of the fire density patterns (adjusted R2 = 0.53). Both approaches confirmed, in addition to forest and climatic variables, the importance of variables related with agrarian activities, land abandonment, rural population exodus and developmental processes as underlying factors of fire occurrence. For the GWR approach, the explanatory power of the GW linear model for fire density using an adaptive bandwidth increased from 53% to 67%, while for the GW logistic model the correctly classified observations improved only slightly, from 76.4% to 78.4%, but significantly according to the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), from 3451.19 to 3321.19. The results from GWR indicated a significant spatial variation in the local parameter estimates for all the variables and an important reduction of the autocorrelation in the residuals of the GW linear model. Despite the fitting improvement of local models, GW regression, more than an alternative to "global" or traditional regression modelling, seems to be a valuable complement to explore the non-stationary relationships between the response variable and the explanatory variables. The synergy of global and local modelling provides insights into fire management and policy and helps further our understanding of the fire problem over large areas while at the same time recognizing its local character

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Section: Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Area and Fire Databasementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling long-term fire occurrence factors in Spain by accounting for local variations with geographically weighted regression

Fernández¹,

Chuvieco

Koutsias³

2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

130

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“…8). In the region, fire is one of the preferred tools to eliminate harvest and agricultural residues, clean field margins, eliminate excess litter in tree orchards, and clear undesired vegetation in pastures (Leone et al, 2009). However, we interpret our result as a possible consequence of the effectiveness of grazing animals in decreasing fuel load (Bovio and Marchi, 2010).…”

Section: Anthropogenic Firesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling anthropogenic and natural fire ignitions in an inner-alpine valley

Vacchiano

Foderi

Berretti

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Modeling and assessing the factors that drive forest fire ignitions is critical for fire prevention and sustainable ecosystem management. In southern Europe, the anthropogenic component of wildland fire ignitions is especially relevant. In the Alps, however, the role of fire as a component of disturbance regimes in forest and grassland ecosystems is poorly known. The aim of this work is to model the probability of fire ignition for an Alpine region in Italy using a regional wildfire archive (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009) and MaxEnt modeling. We analyzed separately (i) winter forest fires, (ii) winter fires on grasslands and fallow land, and (iii) summer fires. Predictors were related to morphology, climate, and land use; distance from infrastructures, number of farms, and number of grazing animals were used as proxies for the anthropogenic component. Collinearity among predictors was reduced by a principal component analysis. Regarding ignitions, 30 % occurred in agricultural areas and 24 % in forests. Ignitions peaked in the late winter-early spring. Negligence from agrosilvicultural activities was the main cause of ignition (64 %); lightning accounted for 9 % of causes across the study time frame, but increased from 6 to 10 % between the first and second period of analysis. Models for all groups of fire had a high goodness of fit (AUC 0.90-0.95). Temperature was proportional to the probability of ignition, and precipitation was inversely proportional. Proximity from infrastructures had an effect only on winter fires, while the density of grazing animals had a remarkably different effect on summer (positive correlation) and winter (negative) fires. Implications are discussed regarding climate change, fire regime changes, and silvicultural prevention. Such a spatially explicit approach allows us to carry out spatially targeted fire management strategies and may assist in developing better fire management plans.

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“…Tedim et al, 2016). Centrar-se na extinção desvia a atenção da prevenção e conduz a resultados inferiores, pois vai exacerbar o problema (R. Collins et al, 2013 O conhecimento das causas é fundamental para adequar o conteúdo e identificar o público-alvo das campanhas de sensibilização (V. Leone et al, 2003Leone et al, , 2009 O modelo de "controlo do fogo" é um modelo durável pois têm-se reforçado no tempo mas não promove o desenvolvimento sustentável pois as questões ecológicas, sociais e económicas são ignoradas, menosprezadas, distorcidas, camufladas de uma forma inconsciente por muitas pessoas mas, provavelmente, consciente por outras a fim de obter benefícios duráveis (P. Arnould e C.…”

Section: As Limitações Da Perspetiva Do "Controlo Do Fogo" Na Resoluçunclassified

The concept of “fire smart territory”: contribution for a shift of the approach in wildfire management in Portugal

Tedim¹

Geography, Landscape and Risks: Book Tribute to Prof. António Pedrosa

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A navegação consulta e descarregamento dos títulos inseridos nas Bibliotecas Digitais UC Digitalis, UC Pombalina e UC Impactum, pressupõem a aceitação plena e sem reservas dos Termos e Condições de Uso destas Bibliotecas Digitais, disponíveis em https://digitalis.uc.pt/pt-pt/termos.Conforme exposto nos referidos Termos e Condições de Uso, o descarregamento de títulos de acesso restrito requer uma licença válida de autorização devendo o utilizador aceder ao(s) documento(s) a partir de um endereço de IP da instituição detentora da supramencionada licença.Ao utilizador é apenas permitido o descarregamento para uso pessoal, pelo que o emprego do(s) título(s) descarregado(s) para outro fim, designadamente comercial, carece de autorização do respetivo autor ou editor da obra. Na medida em que todas as obras da UC Digitalis se encontram protegidas pelo Código do Direito de Autor e Direitos Conexos e demais legislação aplicável, toda a cópia, parcial ou total, deste documento, nos casos em que é legalmente admitida, deverá conter ou fazer-se acompanhar por este aviso.O conceito de "fire smart territory": contributo para a mudança de perspetiva na gestão dos incêndios florestais em Portugal Autor(es):Tedim, Fantina Sumário: A perspetiva sintomática centrada no "controlo do fogo" através da extinção rápida das ignições, não resolveu nem controlou o problema dos incêndios florestais. Este tem uma natureza estrutural cuja solução só pode ser encontrada no âmbito do Sistema Social e Ecológico Acoplado em que se origina e se desenvolve. Neste trabalho introduzimos o conceito de "Fire Smart Territory" 1 que assenta numa nova perspetiva de gestão dos incêndios florestais que promove um maior equilíbrio e inter-relação entre a prevenção e a extinção. Palavras -chave:Controlo do fogo, prevenção, risco. Abstract: The symptomatic approach to fire management focused on "fire control" through the suppression of all fires did not solve or control the problem of wildfires which has a structural root. The resolution of the problem can only be found in the Coupled Human and Natural System where it is originated and developed. In this paper the concept of "Fire Smart Territory" is introduced. It is based on a new perspective on the management of wildfires that promotes a better balance and interrelationship between prevention and suppression.

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Human Factors of Fire Occurrence in the Mediterranean

Cited by 46 publications

References 0 publications

Modelling long-term fire occurrence factors in Spain by accounting for local variations with geographically weighted regression

Modelling long-term fire occurrence factors in Spain by accounting for local variations with geographically weighted regression

Modeling anthropogenic and natural fire ignitions in an inner-alpine valley

The concept of “fire smart territory”: contribution for a shift of the approach in wildfire management in Portugal

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