Human Health: Impacts, Adaptation, and Co-Benefits

Field, Christopher B.; Barros, Vicente; Dokken, David Jon; Mach, Katharine J.; Mastrandrea, Michael D.

doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415379.016

Cited by 38 publications

(15 citation statements)

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“…However, there are also consequences associated with the warming of cold extremes, and this is especially important if the cold tail is warming faster than the warm tail. While there may be some advantages associated with the warming of cold extremes, such as lower human mortality rates from cold spells (Smith et al, 2014;Wolf et al, 2015), there are also detrimental consequences. For example, the warming of cold extremes can lead to more disease-carrying insects that can survive through milder winters (Smith et al, 2014;Wolf et al, 2015;Ebi and Nealon, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While there may be some advantages associated with the warming of cold extremes, such as lower human mortality rates from cold spells (Smith et al, 2014;Wolf et al, 2015), there are also detrimental consequences. For example, the warming of cold extremes can lead to more disease-carrying insects that can survive through milder winters (Smith et al, 2014;Wolf et al, 2015;Ebi and Nealon, 2016). Under a warming climate, mosquitoes might expand and shift in geographical location (Ebi and Nealon, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in daily temperature extremes relative to the mean in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and observations

Gross

Donat

Alexander

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Changes in characteristics of the distribution of temperature, in addition to shifts towards warmer temperatures, can have substantial implications for society and the environment. A change in shape, for example, can be caused by differences in the rates of warming of cold and warm extremes relative to average temperatures. These rates of warming vary both spatially and temporally, with strong geographic and seasonal differences in how local extremes are changing relative to local average temperatures. In this paper, we investigate how seasonal warm and cold tails of both daily maximum and minimum temperatures are changing relative to corresponding seasonal mean temperatures. Analysing gridded observations over land areas and climate models from the CMIP5 archive, we show that in recent decades, the greatest differences between warming rates of extremes and the mean occur in the cold tails of the distribution for many regions in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during all seasons except boreal summer. Globally, June through August show the smallest differences between extremes and mean warming rates. While the climate models show relatively low spatial correlations in their change patterns with each other as well as the observations for past decades, future simulated changes are shown to be systematic and robust, with a clear signal in the warming of extremes relative to the mean. The strongest differences between warming rates of extremes and the mean are projected for Northern Hemisphere mid‐ to high‐latitude regions, where the cold tails warm more than the average for all seasons except boreal summer. This is especially widespread in autumn and spring, where the models predict cold extremes to warm at least 3°C more than mean temperatures for much of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The results presented here highlight the importance of considering all aspects of the distribution when analysing changes in temperature.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in daily temperature extremes relative to the mean in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and observations

Gross

Donat

Alexander

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Following the 2003 European heat wave that resulted in numerous excess deaths -6,461 excess deaths in Spain (22.9%) and 1,987 in England and Wales (4.9%) - [2], there has been increasing awareness and public concern about the need to identify the population groups that may be disproportionately affected by climate change and, in particular, excess heat exposure. Epidemiological evidence indicates that the elderly (older than 65) are at elevated risk of heat-related mortality [3][4][5][6][7], a situation that can be worsened as they are more likely to suffer from Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs), mental and physical impairment, or be socially isolated, homeless or in poverty. Carmona et al [8] suggest that age or income indicators need to be combined to explain variations in heat wave mortality.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing population vulnerability towards summer energy poverty: Case studies of Madrid and London

Sánchez

Peiró

Taylor

et al. 2019

Energy and Buildings

125

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Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and duration of hot weather and its associated adverse health effects. In dense urban areas, these phenomena will be exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect and indoor overheating. This paper assesses population exposure and vulnerability to high summer temperatures by exploring the geospatial connection between the UHI, housing energy efficiency and overheating risk, and social vulnerability indicators, such as income and the elderly population. Focusing on Madrid and London, two European cities with strong UHIs but contrasting drivers of indoor heat risk, the spatial distribution of selected indicators were analysed by means of Geographical Information Systems, and areas with the highest vulnerability towards summer energy poverty were identified. It was found that while 'hot and vulnerable' areas are present in both Madrid and London, there are significant differences in climate, socioeconomic distribution and housing between the two cities. In warmer climates such as Madrid, energy poverty-traditionally defined by wintertime heating-requires its definition to be broadened to include summertime cooling needs; in the context of climate change and urban warming trends, this may soon also be the case in northern cities such as London.

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“…Public health risks associated with hazardous ambient temperature have been widely documented over the past decades. Research and policy communities are interested in this particular exposure due to its serious social and economic consequences (Crimmins et al, 2016;Smith et al, 2014). A recent multicountry observational study estimated that 7.71% of total mortality can be attributed to hazardous temperature exposures .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In 2006, a single two-week heat wave in California led to 5.40 billion USD healthcare costs (Knowlton, Rotkin-Ellman, Geballe, Max, & Solomon, 2011). Under the context of global climate change, the relevance and complexity of this health issue will likely increase (Crimmins et al, 2016;Smith et al, 2014). Annual mean temperatures are projected to rise, and extreme heat events will become more frequent and intense (Clark, Brown, & Murphy, 2006;Hartmann et al, 2013;Meehl & Tebaldi, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature

2018

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Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure.

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Human Health: Impacts, Adaptation, and Co-Benefits

Cited by 38 publications

References 0 publications

Changes in daily temperature extremes relative to the mean in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and observations

Changes in daily temperature extremes relative to the mean in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and observations

Assessing population vulnerability towards summer energy poverty: Case studies of Madrid and London

Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature

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