Human migration, infectious diseases, plague, global health crisis - historical evidence

Kinasih, Sri Endah; Devy, Shrimarti Rukmini; Koesbardiati, Toetik; Romadhona, Mochamad Kevin

doi:10.1080/23311983.2024.2392399

Cogent Arts & Humanities

2024

DOI: 10.1080/23311983.2024.2392399

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Human migration, infectious diseases, plague, global health crisis - historical evidence

Sri Endah Kinasih,

Shrimarti Rukmini Devy,

Toetik Koesbardiati

et al.

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Effect of Temperature on the Spread of Contagious Diseases: Evidence from over 2000 Years of Data

Balcilar,

Mukherjee,

Gupta

et al. 2024

Climate

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The COVID-19 pandemic led to a surge in interest among scholars and public health professionals in identifying the predictors of health shocks and their transmission in the population. With temperature increases becoming a persistent climate stress, our aim is to evaluate how temperature specifically impacts the incidences of contagious disease. Using annual data from 1 AD to 2021 AD on the incidence of contagious disease and temperature anomalies, we apply both parametric and nonparametric modelling techniques and provide estimates of the contemporaneous, as well as lagged, effects of temperature anomalies on the spread of contagious diseases. A nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model is then applied to estimate the time-varying transition probabilities between hidden states where the transition probabilities are governed by covariates. For all empirical specifications, we find consistent evidence that temperature anomalies have a statistically significant effect on the incidence of a contagious disease in any given year covered in the sample period. The best fit model further indicates that the contemporaneous effect of a temperature anomaly on the response variable is the strongest. As temperature predictions continue to become more accurate, our results indicate that such information can be used to implement effective public health responses to limit the spread of contagious diseases. These findings further have implications for designing cost effective infectious disease control policies for different regions of the world.

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Effect of Temperature on the Spread of Contagious Diseases: Evidence from over 2000 Years of Data

Balcilar,

Mukherjee,

Gupta

et al. 2024

Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.

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Human migration, infectious diseases, plague, global health crisis - historical evidence

Cited by 1 publication

References 199 publications

Effect of Temperature on the Spread of Contagious Diseases: Evidence from over 2000 Years of Data

Effect of Temperature on the Spread of Contagious Diseases: Evidence from over 2000 Years of Data

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