Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution

Root, Terry L.; MacMynowski, Dena P.; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Schneider, Stephen H.

doi:10.1073/pnas.0502286102

Cited by 185 publications

(109 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…S hifting plant phenology over the last several decades provides compelling evidence that natural ecosystems are already responding to human-caused environmental changes (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8). Earlier flowering (3)(4)(5) and an earlier peak in primary productivity in satellite data (6,7) in the northern hemisphere in recent decades are correlated with rising temperatures (8).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a grassland ecosystem

Cleland

Chiariello²,

Loarie

et al. 2006

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

428

349

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Shifting plant phenology (i.e., timing of flowering and other developmental events) in recent decades establishes that species and ecosystems are already responding to global environmental change. Earlier flowering and an extended period of active plant growth across much of the northern hemisphere have been interpreted as responses to warming. However, several kinds of environmental change have the potential to influence the phenology of flowering and primary production. Here, we report shifts in phenology of flowering and canopy greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) in response to four experimentally simulated global changes: warming, elevated CO 2, nitrogen (N) deposition, and increased precipitation. Consistent with previous observations, warming accelerated both flowering and greening of the canopy, but phenological responses to the other global change treatments were diverse. Elevated CO 2 and N addition delayed flowering in grasses, but slightly accelerated flowering in forbs. The opposing responses of these two important functional groups decreased their phenological complementarity and potentially increased competition for limiting soil resources. At the ecosystem level, timing of canopy greenness mirrored the flowering phenology of the grasses, which dominate primary production in this system. Elevated CO 2 delayed greening, whereas N addition dampened the acceleration of greening caused by warming. Increased precipitation had no consistent impacts on phenology. This diversity of phenological changes, between plant functional groups and in response to multiple environmental changes, helps explain the diversity in large-scale observations and indicates that changing temperature is only one of several factors reshaping the seasonality of ecosystem processes.

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confidence: 99%

“…Earlier flowering (3)(4)(5) and an earlier peak in primary productivity in satellite data (6,7) in the northern hemisphere in recent decades are correlated with rising temperatures (8). Experimental warming leads to earlier flowering (9,10), but data on the phenological impact of other cooccurring global changes are limited.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a grassland ecosystem

Cleland

Chiariello²,

Loarie

et al. 2006

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

428

349

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Numerous studies have assessed many environmental factors. These studies have calculated and examined the individual contributions of different environmental factors and their effects on the distribution and abundance of different taxa (Moles et al 2003, Jafari et al 2004, Root et al 2005. These studies provide strong evidence that current values applied to general circulation models (GCMs) can be used to predict species distribution changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Change Projections for Taiwan Island Birds: Linking Current and Future Distributions

Lee¹,

Ko²,

Root³

et al. 2012

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The earth is warming rapidly. Species around the world must adapt to the increasing heat and to the rapid rate of temperature change. Decision makers and managers must aid species to adapt and to keep up with the changes if they are not able to do so on their own. Special attention needs to be paid to small islands because they are at high risk for the loss of unique and threatened systems and species, and face habitat loss as a consequence of climate-induced rises in sea level. In this study, we examined 17 endemic avian species on the island of Taiwan. Bird observations from 1993 to 2004 were compared to modeled distributions for 2020, 2050, 2080 and 2100. We used 5 general circulation models (CCCMA, CCSR, EHAM4, GFDL, and HADCM3) for the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change A2 and B2 scenarios. Results show that the distributions of 15 out of 17 species are predicted to shift up in elevation with warming. As the lower distributional limits contract to higher elevation, the upper edge of their current distributions cannot shift up in elevation because they were already near or at the tops of the mountains. Consequently, their distributions are predicted to shrink over time. The median elevation of each of these species' distributions is higher than the median elevation of all available habitats on Taiwan. In addition, we find that a few common species are predicted to become rare species under climate change. Two of the 17 species examined are not near the tops of the mountains and are the only species that have median elevations of their distributions lower than the median of all available habitats on Taiwan. These 2 species are predicted to expand the upper-elevation distribution limit but not to contract the lower-elevational ReseARCh ARTICLe Launched to accelerate biodiversity conservationA peer-reviewed open-access journal Chia-Ying Ko et al. / Nature Conservation 2: 21-40 (2012) 22 limit, which results in a widening of their distributions. Hence, we suggest that the median elevation of a species' current distribution plays a key rule and can be further used as an index of the response birds most likely will exhibit as the temperature increases.

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“…Climate influences plant and animal distributions due to their requirements related to temperature and humidity (Parmesan and Yohe 2003;Root et al 2005;Walther et al 2005;Lavergne et al 2006). It has been documented that when climatic factors are extreme, these can exceed the level of tolerance of species, preventing the optimal expression of their life cycles (Gutiérrez and Trejo 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of climate change on halophytic grasslands loss and its impact in the viability of Gopherus flavomarginatus

Becerra-López¹,

Ramírez‐Bautista²,

Romero-Méndez³

et al. 2017

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The decrease of the habitat is one of the main factors that affect the survival of G. flavomarginatus. This study assesses the halophytic grasslands loss over a period of 30 years in the distribution area of the Bolson tortoise and the effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of these grasslands and its possible impact on this tortoise. Grassland loss was assessed by an analysis of symmetric differences and the habitat suitability model was carried out by the method of overlapping layers raster. Our results showed a grassland loss of 63.7%; however, our current habitat suitability model points out that much of the grassland loss has occurred where the environmental conditions are suitable. These results suggest that anthropic activity is a main factor in the habitat disturbance in the study area. Likewise, the models for years 2050 and 2070 under the criteria RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, suggest that anthropic activity will continue be the main cause of the grassland loss. Therefore, considering the association between the Bolson tortoise and grassland halophyte Hilaria mutica, which comprises around 60% of its diet, the viability of the Bolson tortoise depends largely on strategies aimed at protecting the soil that allow the presence of this grassland.

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Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution

Cited by 185 publications

References 39 publications

Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a grassland ecosystem

Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a grassland ecosystem

Global Change Projections for Taiwan Island Birds: Linking Current and Future Distributions

Effect of climate change on halophytic grasslands loss and its impact in the viability of Gopherus flavomarginatus

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