Humans and Ecosystems Over the Coming Millennia: Overview of a Biosphere Assessment of Radioactive Waste Disposal in Sweden

Kautsky, Ulrik; Lindborg, Tobias; Valentin, J.

doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0405-7

Cited by 32 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Radionuclide transport and exposure of humans and non-human biota are dependent on climate and landscape development (Kautsky et al, 2013a;. Radionuclide transport is dependent on regolith depths and ecosystem types, and humans and biota can utilise the Forsmark area differently dependingon landscape characteristics, e.g.…”

Section: Landscape Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of low and intermediate-level radioactive waste on humans and the environment over the next one hundred thousand years

Kautsky

Saetre

Berglund

et al. 2016

Journal of Environmental Radioactivity

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In order to assess the potential radiological risk to humans and the environment from a geological repository for radioactive waste, a safety assessment must be performed. This implies that the release and transfer of radionuclides from the repository into the surface environment are calculated and that the effects in the biosphere are evaluated for an assessment period up to one hundred thousand years according to Swedish regulations. This paper discusses the challenges associated with the modelling of surface ecosystems over such long time scales, using the recently completed assessment for the extension of the existing repository for the low- and intermediate-level nuclear waste (called SFR) in Forsmark, Sweden as an applied example. In the assessment, natural variation and uncertainties in climate during the assessment period were captured by using a set of climate cases, primarily reflecting different expectations on the effects of global warming. Development of the landscape at the site, due to post-glacial isostatic rebound, was modelled, and areas where modelling indicated that radionuclides could discharge into the biosphere were identified. Transfers of surface water and groundwater were described with spatially distributed hydrological models. The projected release of radionuclides from the bedrock was then fed into a biosphere radionuclide transport model, simulating the transport and fate of radionuclides within and between ecosystems in the landscape. Annual doses for human inhabitants were calculated by combining activity concentrations in environmental media (soil, water, air and plants) with assumptions on habits and land-use of future human inhabitants. Similarly, dose rates to representative organisms of non-human biota were calculated from activity concentrations in relevant habitats, following the ERICA methodology. In the main scenario, the calculated risk for humans did not exceed the risk criteria or the screening dose rate for non-human biota, indicating that the repository design is sufficient to protect future populations and the environment. Although the combination of radionuclides, land-uses/habitats, type of most exposed population and area of exposure that contribute most to the total dose shifts over time, the total calculated dose shows limited variability. Significant reductions in the dose only occur during submerged periods and under periglacial climate conditions. As several different water and food pathways were equally important for endpoint results, it is concluded that it would be difficult to represent the biosphere with one or a set of simplified models. Instead, we found that it is important to maintain a diversity of food and water pathways, as key pathways for radionuclide accumulation and exposure partly worked in parallel.

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Section: Landscape Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This and other differences between assessing a HLW repository (SR-Site, cf. Kautsky et al, 2013a) and a LILW (SKB, 2014a) are discussed in this article. SFR has been operated by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) since 1988.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of low and intermediate-level radioactive waste on humans and the environment over the next one hundred thousand years

Kautsky

Saetre

Berglund

et al. 2016

Journal of Environmental Radioactivity

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“…"Adaptive" implies that the governance is characterized by flexibility and learning in response to environmental crisis . However, with the exception of large-scale national projects for which interdisciplinary assessments are crucial (e.g., Kautsky et al 2013), these governance challenges and the potentially synergistic effects of multiple drivers on biodiversity (Brook et al 2008) are rarely analyzed simultaneously. This lack of integrative studies raises the question of how well the scientific community understands the processes underlying change in biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and ecosystem services , and consequently whether future projections can be used to inform decision making (Olsson et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interacting effects of change in climate, human population, land use, and water use on biodiversity and ecosystem services

Elmhagen¹,

Destouni²,

Angerbjörn³

et al. 2015

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6°C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.

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“…For such a facility, this means that the time frame is up to a million years (Kautsky et al 2013) and may include several periods of glaciation (Näslund et al 2013) and long-term changes such as shore-line displacement and succession of the landscape from marine ecosystems, through lakes and mires, to terrestrial ecosystems (Lindborg et al 2013), as well as changes in expected human behavior (Saetre et al 2013). Usually, such facilities are located or planned close to the coast and will be close to the coast over most of the timeframe of their existence (Kautsky et al 2013; Näslund et al 2013). Thus, the fate of release of radionuclides to the biosphere and particularly the coastal marine ecosystem is of interest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radionuclide Transport and Uptake in Coastal Aquatic Ecosystems: A Comparison of a 3D Dynamic Model and a Compartment Model

Erichsen

Konovalenko

Møhlenberg

et al. 2013

AMBIO

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In safety assessments of underground radioactive waste repositories, understanding radionuclide fate in ecosystems is necessary to determine the impacts of potential releases. Here, the reliability of two mechanistic models (the compartmental K-model and the 3D dynamic D-model) in describing the fate of radionuclides released into a Baltic Sea bay is tested. Both are based on ecosystem models that simulate the cycling of organic matter (carbon). Radionuclide transfer is linked to adsorption and flows of carbon in food chains. Accumulation of Th-230, Cs-135, and Ni-59 in biological compartments was comparable between the models and site measurements despite differences in temporal resolution, biological state variables, and partition coefficients. Both models provided confidence limits for their modeled concentration ratios, an improvement over models that only estimate means. The D-model enables estimates at high spatio-temporal resolution. The K-model, being coarser but faster, allows estimates centuries ahead. Future developments could integrate the two models to take advantage of their respective strengths.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0398-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Humans and Ecosystems Over the Coming Millennia: Overview of a Biosphere Assessment of Radioactive Waste Disposal in Sweden

Cited by 32 publications

References 29 publications

The impact of low and intermediate-level radioactive waste on humans and the environment over the next one hundred thousand years

The impact of low and intermediate-level radioactive waste on humans and the environment over the next one hundred thousand years

Interacting effects of change in climate, human population, land use, and water use on biodiversity and ecosystem services

Radionuclide Transport and Uptake in Coastal Aquatic Ecosystems: A Comparison of a 3D Dynamic Model and a Compartment Model

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