There are considerable challenges in the conservation of large carnivores, caused by large area requirements, low reproduction rates and low population densities coupled with their tendency to cause conflict with humans. Trophy hunting is one strategy to increase support for large carnivore conservation. Leopards, Panthera pardus, rank among the most soughtafter trophies in South Africa. However, trophy hunting has been suggested as partly responsible for leopard population declines, and leopards are also killed in retaliatory actions. In this study we used a stochastic population model to evaluate the relative influences of retaliatory killing and trophy harvest on leopard population persistence, and to assess the sustainability of the current leopard trophy harvest in South Africa. There was a stronger effect of variation in retaliatory killing than of harvest on population persistence. Although we found low extinction risks for South African leopards within 25 years, high risks of population declines across a wide range of simulation scenarios call for concern regarding the viability of the South African leopard population. We suggest that conflict mitigation may be more effective in promoting leopard persistence than restricting trophy harvest, and that accurate estimates of retaliatory killing are necessary for assessments of harvest sustainability.Key words: trophy hunting, carnivore, adaptive management, simulation models, population viability analysis.
INTRODUCTIONConservation biologists and wildlife managers face considerable challenges in the management and conservation of large carnivores (Noss et al. 1996). Large carnivores have extensive area requirements, low reproduction rates and normally occur at low densities (Purvis et al. 2000). Furthermore, protected areas are rarely large enough to maintain viable large carnivore populations (Linnell et al. 2001). Therefore, non-protected areas are important in the conservation of large carnivores (Funston et al. 2013). However, carnivore populations in non-protected areas are frequently in conflict with rural communities, commercial farmers and game keepers, and retaliatory killing in response to human-large carnivore conflict is common (Woodroffe & Ginsberg 1998; Dar et al. 2009; Dickman 2010 Thorn et al. 2012). Trophy hunting is often seen as an appropiate incentive to conserve leopards (Lindsey et al. 2007; Funtson et al. 2013), but concern over the sustainability of leopard trophy hunting in South Africa has been raised (Balme et al. 2009). These concerns are founded in a doubling of the harvest quota since 2005 (75 to 150 animals), as well as increased incidents of legal and illegal retaliatory killing (Daly et al. 2005). Coupled with recent concerns that poorly managed trophy hunting may be partly responsible for declining leopard populations (Balme et al. 2009;Packer et al. 2011), there thus appears to be a need for a formal evaluation of the sustainability of the current trophy harvest of South African leopards.Population viability analyses (PV...