Hurricanes and Global Warming: Results from Downscaling IPCC AR4 Simulations

Emanuel, Kerry; Sundararajan, Ragoth; Williams, John

doi:10.1175/bams-89-3-347

Cited by 775 publications

(853 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Emanuel [1995] identified a nondimensional parameter that regulates the time needed for an incipient disturbance to saturate the middle troposphere to allow for intensification; larger values imply longer gestation. It is also a likely explanation for the decrease in storm frequency with warming observed in global climate models [e.g., Emanuel et al, 2008;Camargo et al, 2014]. The parameter is defined as:…”

Section: Mid-tropospheric Moisture Contentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamical downscaling of tropical cyclones from CCSM4 simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum

Yoo

Galewsky

Camargo

et al. 2016

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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Dynamical downscaling of simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and late twentieth century (20C) were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the aim of (1) understanding how the downscaled kinematic and thermodynamic variables influence simulated tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific during the LGM and the 20C periods and (2) to test the relevance of TC genesis factors for the colder LGM climate. The results show that, despite the lower temperatures during the LGM, the downscaled TC climatology over the western North Pacific in the LGM simulation does not differ significantly from that in the 20C simulation. Among the TC environmental factors, the TC potential intensity, mid‐tropospheric entropy deficit, and vertical wind shear during the LGM were consistent with previous analyses of TC genesis factors in LGM global climate model simulations. Changes in TC genesis density between the LGM and the 20C simulations seem to be well represented by the ventilation index, a nondimensional measure of the combined effects of vertical wind shear, and thermodynamic properties, suggesting the potential applicability of those factors for TC activity evaluation during the LGM and possibly other climates.

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Section: Mid-tropospheric Moisture Contentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamical downscaling of tropical cyclones from CCSM4 simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum

Yoo

Galewsky

Camargo

et al. 2016

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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“…Most glaring is its dimensional inconsistency. Moreover, recent studies by Nolan et al (2007, hereafter N07) and Nolan and Rappin (2008, hereafter N08) showed that the index predicted an increase in genesis in an environment of increasing SST, whereas numerous GCM simulations with and without regional downscaling show a general decrease in genesis with increasing SST due to global warming (Sugi et al, 2002;Yoshimura et al, 2006;Bengtsson et al, 2007;Emanuel et al, 2008;Knutson et al, 2008), albeit with much regional variability.…”

Section: A Pseudo-indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermodynamic control of tropical cyclogenesis in environments of radiative‐convective equilibrium with shear

Rappin

Nolan

Emanuel

2010

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The potential for tropical cyclone formation from a pre-existing disturbance is further explored with high-resolution simulations of cyclogenesis in idealized, tropical environments. These idealized environments are generated from simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium with fixed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), imposed mean surface winds, and an imposed profile of vertical wind shear. The propensity for tropical cyclogenesis in these environments is measured in two ways: first, in the period of time required for a weak, mid-level circulation to transition to a developing tropical cyclone; and second, from the value of an incubation parameter that incorporates environmental measures of mid-level saturation deficit and thermodynamic disequilibrium between the atmosphere and ocean. Conditions of tropospheric warming can be produced from increased SSTs or from increased mean surface winds; in either case, the time to genesis increases with atmospheric warming. As these parameters are varied, the incubation parameter is found to be highly correlated with changes in the time to genesis.The high resolution (3 km) of these simulations permits analysis of changes in tropical cyclogenesis under warming conditions at the vortex scale. For increasing SST, increased mid-level saturation deficits (dryness) are the primary reason for slowing or preventing genesis. For environments with increased surface wind, it is the decreased thermodynamic disequilibrium between the atmosphere and ocean that delays or prevents development. An additional effect in both cases is a decoupling of the low-level and mid-level vortices, primarily as a result of increased advecting flow at the altitude of the mid-level vortex, which is linked to the height of the freezing level.

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“…However, in Bangladesh, overcrowding in the mainland drives the poor and landless people to live in the coast where they are exposed to frequent cyclone and storm surges (IPCC 1996;Rahman 2004). Staying alive, and livelihood security is central to the welfare of the coastal communities (Mutahara et al 2013); and increasingly perilous as the frequency of cyclonic storm-surges are increasing due to climate change (Emanuel et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a sustainable livelihood security model for storm-surge hazard in the coastal areas of Bangladesh

Mutahara

Haque

Khan

et al. 2016

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Coastal communities in Bangladesh are at great risk due to frequent cyclones and cyclone induced stormsurges, which damages inland and marine resource systems. In the present research, seven marginal livelihood groups including Farmers, Fisherman, Fry (shrimp) collectors, Salt farmers, Dry fishers, Forest resource extractors, and Daily wage labourers are identified to be extremely affected by storm-surges in the coastal area of Bangladesh. A livelihood security model was developed to investigate the security status of the coastal livelihood system in a participatory approach. In the model, livelihood security consists of five components: (1) Food, (2) Income, (3) Life & health, (4) House & properties, and (5) Water security. Analytical hierarchy process was followed to assess the livelihood security indicators based on respondents' security options. The model was verified through direct field observation and expert judgment. The Livelihood Security Model yields a Livelihood Security Index which can be used for assessing and comparing the household security level (in %) of different livelihood groups in the storm-surge prone coastal areas. The model was applied with data from two major coastal areas (Cox's Bazar and Satkhira) of Bangladesh and is applicable to other coastal areas having similar settings.

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Hurricanes and Global Warming: Results from Downscaling IPCC AR4 Simulations

Cited by 775 publications

References 42 publications

Dynamical downscaling of tropical cyclones from CCSM4 simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum

Dynamical downscaling of tropical cyclones from CCSM4 simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum

Thermodynamic control of tropical cyclogenesis in environments of radiative‐convective equilibrium with shear

Development of a sustainable livelihood security model for storm-surge hazard in the coastal areas of Bangladesh

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