Hydro-meteorological and agricultural trends in water-scarce Karha Basin, western India: current and future scenario

Todmal, Rahul S.; Korade, Mahendra S.; Dhorde, Amit; Zolekar, Rajendra B.

doi:10.1007/s12517-018-3594-3

Cited by 9 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…However, in the Man and Sina basins (about 70% of the study area), these two droughts were observed with relatively less intensity and hence were categorized as severe droughts, which occur once in 28 years. Among these two drought events, the drought of 2003 was the worst experienced by the study area after the 1972 drought conditions (Todmal 2016). Interestingly, these two severe drought events (1972 and 2003) have an interval of about 30 years, which is almost comparable with the drought frequency results (Table 1) obtained in the present study.…”

Section: B Estimation Of Monsoon Rainfall Vis-à-vis Drought Return Periodssupporting

confidence: 90%

“…The events with negative SOI during June to October retard the monsoon in the study area (five basins). The comparable results obtained by Todmal and Kale (2016) corroborate the same fact. However, there is weak linkage between occurrences of droughts and El Niño events.…”

Section: A Meteorological Droughtssupporting

confidence: 87%

“…It is a well-established fact that the cropped area under rainfed crops in Maharashtra is getting replaced by cash crops/high water-requiring crops (Kalamkar 2011;Todmal and Kale 2016). In the present investigation, same fact is apparent.…”

Section: Spi Vis-à-vis Scpi and Scaisupporting

confidence: 67%

“…Sorghum and pearl millet are the dominant crops, which cover about 50%-60% of the cropped area. Because of their lower market value, the traditional crops in this region are being replaced by cash crops such as sugarcane, maize, and onion (World Bank 2008;Kalamkar 2011;Todmal and Kale 2016).…”

Section: B Climate and Agricultural Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The severe and consecutive meteorological drought events (consecutively for four years) are expected to occur between 2029 and 2032 and between 2035 and 2038. It is pertinent to mention here that the annual mean temperature over the semiarid region of Maharashtra has increased (by 0.168C decade 21 ) during the last four decades and resulted in increase of potential evapotranspiration (Todmal et al 2018). The projected annual mean temperature data used in the present investigation indicate rise in temperature by 1.028C up to 2050, which will notably be amplified after 2030.…”

Section: A Meteorological Droughtsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Droughts and Agriculture in the Semi-Arid Region of Maharashtra, Western India

Todmal¹

2019

Weather, Climate, and Society

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In the prevailing climate change scenario, to cope with drought, it is necessary to understand the characteristics of meteorological droughts in water-scarce regions to formulate judicial plans for the utilization of water resources. The present investigation, therefore, endeavored to assess the intensity and frequency of droughts over the five semiarid river basins in Maharashtra during the past (1980–2013) and future (2015–50). The study was carried out with the application of standardized precipitation index (SPI) methodology. The agricultural and satellite [normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)] data were analyzed to understand the effects of meteorological droughts. Although the study area experienced three severe rainfall droughts in 1985/86, 2002/03, and 2011/12, higher frequency of low-intensity droughts is observed, particularly after 2000. The estimation suggests occurrence of moderate, severe, and extreme droughts once in 6, 28, and 50 years, respectively. Among the selected basins, the Agrani, the Karha, and the Man are expected to experience intense droughts and hence require special attention in drought management. The study also highlights that El Niño events considerably retard the monsoon rainfall. However, the occurrence of the positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole in the El Niño years reduces the intensity of droughts. As agricultural productivity and cropped areas heavily depend on the monsoon rainfall, the meteorological droughts result in agricultural droughts. Moreover, the future warming (by 1.02°C) over the study area is very likely to exacerbate the meteorological droughts (estimated to occur in the 2030s) and increase the agricultural water demand, further adding to an already difficult water management challenge in the study basins.

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Section: B Estimation Of Monsoon Rainfall Vis-à-vis Drought Return Periodssupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: A Meteorological Droughtssupporting

confidence: 87%

Section: Spi Vis-à-vis Scpi and Scaisupporting

confidence: 67%

Section: B Climate and Agricultural Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Meteorological Droughtsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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