Hydro-meteorological trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall and innovative-Şen methodologies: a case study

Phuong, Dang Nguyen Dong; Tram, Vo Ngoc Quynh; Nhat, Tran Thong; Ly, Tran Dinh; Lợi, Nguyễn Kim

doi:10.1504/ijgw.2020.105385

Cited by 35 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…If the data points are located on the 1:1 line, there is no trend in the time series, whereas the upper (lower) region indicates increasing (decreasing) trends as presented in Figure 2. The ITA is a non-holistic [51,54,57,58] and sophisticated compared to traditional Mann-Kendall and linear regression. The ITA method has already been used in different regions and river basins of China [53][54][55][59][60][61].…”

Section: Innovative Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of Changes in Streamflow to Climate Change and Land Cover Change in Yangtze River Source Region, China

Ahmed

Wang

Lü

et al. 2022

Water

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The quantitative attribution of changes in streamflow to climate change (CC) and land cover change (LCC) for the Yangtze River Source Region (YRSR), China, was assessed. We used a combination of the SWAT model along with the statistical technique one factor at a time (OFAT) and innovative trend analysis (ITA) to achieve the study objectives. The climate and hydrology data from 1961 to 2016 and land-cover maps of 5 years’ difference from 1985 to 2015 were used. The model was calibrated (1964–1989) using a land-cover map of 1985 and validated for 1990–2016. This validated model was further validated for all other land-cover maps used in this study. The SWAT model simulation showed that streamflow had been significantly influenced by CC compared to LCC using land-cover maps of 1985–1990, 1990–1995. However, the SWAT model simulations did not result in further changes in streamflow for land cover maps of 2000–2005, 2005–2010, and 2010–2015 because there have not been any significant changes in land cover after 2000 while the main contributing factor was climate change. The SWAT model simulations showed that the main driver of changes in streamflow in the Yangtze River Source Region is climate change. This study shows that the individual impacts are more critical than combined impacts for designing hydraulic structures, water resources planning and management, and decision-making policies at the regional/basin scale.

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Section: Innovative Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of Changes in Streamflow to Climate Change and Land Cover Change in Yangtze River Source Region, China

Ahmed

Wang

Lü

et al. 2022

Water

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“…It is also one of the effective methods of time series trend analysis, showing good performance to reveal overall trends of time series evolution and abrupt changes [61,62]. At present, it has been widely used in the analysis of the time series of hydrological and meteorological elements, and recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) [63].…”

Section: The Mann-kendall Trend Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variation in Relative Humidity in Guangdong, China, from 1959 to 2017

Liu

Yang

Xing-hu

2020

Water

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Despite the marked influence of relative humidity (RH) on ecosystems and human society, the spatiotemporal pattern of RH is far from clearly understood. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal variation in RH in Guangdong Province, South China, in the period of 1959–2017. The RH data were collected from 74 national standard meteorological stations. The spatiotemporal variation in RH was evaluated using rotate empirical orthogonal function (REOF) zoning, Mann–Kendall test, and wavelet transform methods. Based on the REOF decomposition situation of monthly RH field, Guangdong was divided into six subareas. The annual mean of RH in the whole province was 78.90%. In terms of spatial variation, overall annual mean RH decreased from southwest to northeast in the province. Temporally, annual mean RH showed a declining trend in the last six decades. Particularly, the RH in the Pearl River Delta area declined at the rate of 1.349%/10a. Mann–Kendall tests showed that mutation points of annual mean RH mostly appeared in the 1990s, especially in the early 1990s. Continuous wavelet transforms of annual mean RH displayed that inland subareas have similar cycle characteristics, and the east coast and Pearl River Delta have no significant period in most time domains. The results provide new understanding of RH variation in the last six decades in South China, which is valuable for detecting climate change, monitoring hazardous weather, and predicting future environmental change.

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“…Working with meteorological and hydrological time series data, the commonly used nonparametric tests are the Mann-Kendall (Mann 1945;Kendall 1975) and Spearman's Rho (Lehmann & D'Abrera 1975;Sneyers 1991). Among these, researchers have used Mann-Kendall very commonly in studying trends in meteorological data (Hamed & Rao 1998;Shadmani et al 2012;Gocic & Trajkovic 2013;Ahmad et al 2015;Rahman & Dawood 2017;Phuong et al 2020;Ullah et al 2020;Rahman et al 2021a;Rafiq et al 2022aRafiq et al , 2022b, while in comparison, Spearman's Rho is less commonly used in detecting monotonic trends in time series meteorological data (Yue et al 2002;Gocic & Trajkovic 2013;Rahman et al , 2021b.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend analysis of historical and future precipitation projections over a diverse topographic region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa using SDSM

Rahman

Munawar

et al. 2022

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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This study focuses on the spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall variability, trend patterns, and projected changes using GCM CCSM4 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The historical rainfall variability (1971–2018), trend, and magnitude were assessed using Mann–Kendall and Spearman's Rho. In addition, to downscale GCMs data of precipitation at the regional level of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, SDSM conditional sub-model was applied. The monthly Mann–Kendall and Spearman's Rho trend test results revealed that most of the meteorological stations located in the northeastern mountains recorded decreasing trend while Parachinar observed an increasing trend in almost all months except December. The trend results for seasonal rainfall showed a decreasing trend in winter, spring, and summer in the north and northeastern parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa whereas an increasing trend was observed in all seasons at Parachinar. The RCP4.5 projections depicted an increase in precipitation especially in the monsoon-dominating regions in comparison to the western disturbances, while decreasing rainfall projection was observed in RCP8.5. The projections for the summer and winter seasons depicted an increasing trend till the mid-century but in the latter half, a decline is registered. Such seasonal changes may initially cause flooding followed by drought, which calls for effective water management strategies.

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Hydro-meteorological trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall and innovative-Şen methodologies: a case study

Cited by 35 publications

References 0 publications

Attribution of Changes in Streamflow to Climate Change and Land Cover Change in Yangtze River Source Region, China

Attribution of Changes in Streamflow to Climate Change and Land Cover Change in Yangtze River Source Region, China

Spatiotemporal Variation in Relative Humidity in Guangdong, China, from 1959 to 2017

Trend analysis of historical and future precipitation projections over a diverse topographic region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa using SDSM

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