Hydroclimate changes over Sweden in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: a millennium perspective

Chen, Deliang; Zhang, Peng; Seftigen, Kristina; Ou, Tinghai; Giese, Markus; Barthel, Roland

doi:10.1080/04353676.2020.1841410

Cited by 22 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 155 publications

(221 reference statements)

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“…Irregularly distributed precipitation measurement stations make it difficult to determine statistically significant trends and regime shifts. Sweden shows an overall wetting trend since the 1900s, in particular since the mid 20 th century (Chen et al, 2020). In Finland, the overall increase detected for 1961-2010 is neither regionally consistent nor always statistically significant (Aalto et al, 2016).…”

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 87%

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

Meier

Kniebusch

Dieterich

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarized and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focusses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in paleo-, historical and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments remain still valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, e.g. for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution and new scenario simulations with improved models, e.g. for glaciers, lake ice and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before, because more models can be included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth System have been studied and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication and climate change. New data sets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal time scales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first paleoclimate simulations regionalized for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics is dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterized by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern sub-basins and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern sub-basins.

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Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 87%

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

Meier

Kniebusch

Dieterich

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Irregularly distributed precipitation measurement stations make it difficult to determine statistically significant trends and regime shifts. Sweden has shown an overall increasing trend in precipitation since the 1900s, in particular since the mid-20th century (Chen et al, 2020). In Finland, the overall increase detected for 1961-2010 is neither regionally consistent nor always statistically significant (Aalto et al, 2016).…”

Section: 21(4) Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 92%

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.

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“…In this study, the Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3.1)/T63 atmospheric and sea-ice model output-namely, the SRES B2 model experiment [40,41]-was used to generate near-time scenarios. SRES GCM scenarios find significant changes for the near-term prediction and projection of watershed variables using temperature and precipitation datasets [40][41][42]. CMIP3 SRES B2 experiment-based daily temperature and precipitation datasets at 128 × 64 Gaussian grid (approximately 2.5 • latitudes × 2.5 • longitudes) are then downloaded.…”

Section: Gcm Datasets and Projection Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improvements in Sub-Catchment Fractional Snowpack and Snowmelt Parameterizations and Hydrologic Modeling for Climate Change Assessments in the Western Himalayas

Singh

Muñoz-Arriola

2021

Hydrology

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The present work proposes to improve estimates of snowpack and snowmelt and their assessment in the steep Himalayan ranges at the sub-catchment scale. Temporal variability of streamflow and the associated distribution of accumulated snow in catchments with glacier presence in the Himalayas illustrates how changes in snowpack and snowmelt can affect the water supply for local water management. The primary objective of this study is to assess the role of elevation, temperature lapse rate (TLR), and precipitation lapse rate (PLR) in the computation of snowpack (or snowfall) and snowmelt in sub-catchments of the Satluj River basin. Modeling of snowpack and snowmelt was constructed using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in both historical (1991–2008) and near-time scenarios (2011–2030) by implementing real-time hydrometeorological, snow-hydrological parameters, and Global Circulation Model (GCM) datasets. The modeled snowmelt-induced streamflow showed a good agreement with the observed streamflow (~60%), calibrated and validated at three gauges. A Sequential Uncertainty Parameter Fitting (SUFI2) method (SUFI2) resulted that the curve number (CN2) was found to be significantly sensitive during calibration. The snowmelt hydrological parameters such as snowmelt factor maximum (SMFMX) and snow coverage (SNO50COV) significantly affected objective functions, such as R2 and NSE, during the model optimization. For the validation of snowpack and snowmelt, the results have been contrasted with previous studies and found comparable. The computed snowpack and snowmelt were found highly variable over the Himalayan sub-catchments, as also reported by previous researchers. The magnitude of snowpack change consistently decreases across all the sub-catchments of the Satluj river catchment (varying between 4% and 42%). The highest percentage of changes in the snowpack was observed over high-elevation sub-catchments.

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Hydroclimate changes over Sweden in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: a millennium perspective

Cited by 22 publications

References 155 publications

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary

Improvements in Sub-Catchment Fractional Snowpack and Snowmelt Parameterizations and Hydrologic Modeling for Climate Change Assessments in the Western Himalayas

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