Hydroclimate projections for Panama in the late 21st Century

Abstract

Abstract:This work analyzes hydroclimate projections in Panama toward the end of the 21 st century by employing the MRI-AGCM3.1 model. Understanding the impact of climate change on water resources is fundamental for a number of economic activities in Panama (i.e. Panama Canal operation, hydropower generation, and agriculture). Therefore, it is important to assess hydroclimatic impacts in specific basins using reliable Atmospheric Global Circulation Models (AGCMs) validated against actual field data. A 20-km mesh experiment was developed by using time-sliced analysis for current and future (2075-2099) periods. Uncertainty in climate projections were addressed by completing 60-km mesh AGCM ensemble experiments at three additional lower boundary conditions. Four regions in Panama were selected for detailed analysis: from east to west, Bocas del Toro, Veraguas, Panama Canal and Darien. Projections show significant precipitation increases from May and July to December for all regions except Bocas del Toro. In this region, a decrease in precipitation is expected between April and August. Total runoff for all regions followed the changes in precipitation as expected. Due to net radiation increases, projected evaporation did not appear to be affected by precipitation changes.

Regional modeling of climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture and ecosystems in Central America

“…Similarly, forests in northeastern Costa Rica have grown more slowly due to lower precipitation and increased minimum temperatures (Clark et al 2010). Dry tropical forests in Costa Rica's northern Pacific region are showing increases in deciduous canopy species in response to drying (Enquist and Enquist 2011).…”

A climate analogue approach to understanding the future climates of six South American capital cities

“…Drastic economic impacts observed in some countries can be directly attributable to climate change (Fábrega et al, 2013). The extent of climate change impacts in western South America point to the ways in which local-scale future climates may fluctuate under global climate change.…”

Seasonal changes of the diurnal variation of precipitation in the upper Río Chagres basin, Panamá

“…The elevation ranges from 60 m to 1000 m, and more than 37% of the basin is occupied by steep hillsides with gradients greater than 45°. The entire basin lies within the Chagres National Park, which was established in 1985 to preserve the drinking water source of Panama City and Colon and the flow of water into the canal [33]. The dominant vegetation type in the upper Río Chagres basin is tropical rainforest.…”