Hydroclimatic variability and flood risk on Naglanou and Akissa forests areas in Mono River Delta (West Africa)

Amoussou, Ernest; Osseni, A A; Vodounon, S.H. Totin; Lange, Uwe; Preuss, S

doi:10.5897/ijbc2016.1061

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Diallo et al [19] analyzed the inter-annual variability using several climate models over Sahel region and concluded that the models can reproduce rainfall variability with correlation exceeding 0.6 compare to observations. Amoussou et al [20] reviewed hydroclimatic variability and flood risk in two small forests located in the Mono River Basin (MRB). Lawin et al [21,22] studied climate extreme trends of temperature and rainfall using a single model of Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and later with REgional MOdel (REMO) and consedering a few number of stations in the MRB.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend Analysis of Hydroclimatic Historical Data and Future Scenarios of Climate Extreme Indices over Mono River Basin in West Africa

Koubodana¹,

Tall²,

Amoussou³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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This paper performs non-parametric Mann Kendall (MK) trend analysis of historical hydroclimatic data (1961-2016), an ensemble climate model validation and a computation of 16 Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) temperature and rainfall extremes indices. The climate indices are evaluated using MK test and annual trend analysis for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5) future scenarios from 2020 to 2045 over Mono River Basin (MRB) in Togo. The annual and seasonal trend analyses are assessed on historical potential evapotranspiration, mean temperature, rainfall and discharge data. Results show positive and negative trends of hydroclimatic data over MRB from1961 to 2016. Mean temperatures increase significantly in most of the stations while a negative non-significant trend is noticed for rainfall. Meanwhile, the discharge presents a significant seasonal and annual trend for three gauge stations (Corrokope, Nangbéto and Athiémé). Validation of the ensemble climate models reveals that the model under-estimates observations at Sokode, Atkakpamé and Tabligbo stations, however linear regression and spatial correlation coefficients are higher than 0.6. Moreover, the percentage of bias between climate model and observations are less than 15% at most of the stations. Finally, the computation of extreme climatic indices under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios shows a significant annual trend of some extreme climatic indices of rainfall and temperature at selected stations between 2020 and 2045 in the MRB. Therefore, relevant governmental politics are needed to elaborate strategies and measures to cope with projected climate changes impacts in the country.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend Analysis of Hydroclimatic Historical Data and Future Scenarios of Climate Extreme Indices over Mono River Basin in West Africa

Koubodana¹,

Tall²,

Amoussou³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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“…LULC spatial trend direction and location are approximately situated in the locations of the main cities of the basin, therefore, LULC spatial trend can be explained by population activities and growth as mentioned by Koglo et al (2018) in the south district of MRB. Because of its fine resolution, the Nangbéto dam area and some protected forests such as Malafacassa (Amoussou et al, 2017;Atsri et al, 2018) are well delimited. The excellent reclassification of these land cover is due to low and high albedo factor of water and forest which plays a role during data collection by satellite's sensors.…”

Section: Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios Accuracy And Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of the Accuracy of Land Cover Data Sets on the Accuracy of Land Cover Change Scenarios in the Mono River Basin, Togo, West Africa

Koubodana¹,

Diekkrüger²,

Näschen³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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The results reveal CILSS as the most accurate data set with a Kappa coefficient of 68% and an overall accuracy of 83%. CILSS data shows a decrease of savanna and forest whereas an increase of cropland over the period 1975 to 2013. The increase of cropland area of 30.97% from 1975 to 2013 can be related to the increase in population and their food demand, while the losses of forest area and the decrease of savanna are further amplified by using wood as energy sources and the lack of forest management. The three datasets were used to simulate future LULC changes using the Terrset Land Change Modeler. The validation of the model using CILSS data for 2013 showed a quality of 50.94%, it is only 40.04% for ESA and 20.13% for Globeland30. CILSS data was utilized to simulate the LULC distribution for the years 2020 and 2027 because of its satisfactory performances. The results show that a high spatial resolution is not a guarantee of high quality. The results of this study can be used for impact studies and to develop management strategies for mitigating negative effects of land use and land cover change.

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“…Most of these studies compared specific climate parameters to household perceptions in general for determining adaptive strategies, but less attention was given to flooding. In addition, despite many studies were conducted in the Lower Mono River (LMR) catchment for analyzing the climatic and hydrological causes of flood and getting more insight in its causes in the study area [33][34][35][36][37], the information on local communities and stakeholders perceptions on this matter remain limited. [38] noted that local community perception is an important predictor for flood mitigation in the catchment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing households’ perception of flood hazard with historical climate and hydrological data in the Lower Mono River catchment (West Africa), Benin and Togo

et al. 2023

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The comparison of local perception of flood hazards, with hydrological and climate parameters, can give more insight and understanding on the causes of flood, its impacts and the strategies to effectively address the problem. This study examines whether households’ perception of rainfall and flood occurrence are consistent with observed variation in climate parameter (rainfall) and hydrological (discharge) data in the Lower Mono River catchment (Togo-Benin, West Africa). Perceptions of the 744 households from the catchment were collected and compared to historical climatic and hydrological data using correlation analysis. The Standardized Precipitation Index was utilized to identify the extreme years in terms of precipitation. Chi-test and binary regression analyses were performed to identify the most affected communes within the catchment, and the factors that influence household perceptions on rainfall change, respectively. Findings reveal that 85% of the respondents perceived an excess in rainfall during the last 20 years and identify two particular years as the most affected by flood, which correspond to the climate data analysis. Households’ perceptions on flooded months are correlated with the monthly precipitation and discharge at the upper part of the catchment while the ones at down part are not correlated. Furthermore, the chi-test analysis shows that in the perception of households, the communes at the down part are more affected by flood than those at the upper part of the catchment. It is then important for decision maker to consider local communities’ perception for having insight regarding climate parameters, the causes of flood and in the decision making for implementing measures to cope with this phenomenon.

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Hydroclimatic variability and flood risk on Naglanou and Akissa forests areas in Mono River Delta (West Africa)

Abstract: ). Return periods correspond to 2, 10, 20 and 50 years.

Cited by 3 publications

References 34 publications

Trend Analysis of Hydroclimatic Historical Data and Future Scenarios of Climate Extreme Indices over Mono River Basin in West Africa

Trend Analysis of Hydroclimatic Historical Data and Future Scenarios of Climate Extreme Indices over Mono River Basin in West Africa

Impact of the Accuracy of Land Cover Data Sets on the Accuracy of Land Cover Change Scenarios in the Mono River Basin, Togo, West Africa

Comparing households’ perception of flood hazard with historical climate and hydrological data in the Lower Mono River catchment (West Africa), Benin and Togo

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