Hydroclimatically-Defined Mixed Distributions in Partial Duration Flood Series

Hirschboeck, Katherine K.

doi:10.1007/978-94-009-3953-0_13

Cited by 74 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…This can be illustrated by considering daily discharges of small mountain catchments where high values are commonly observed either in spring or autumn. In this case, two populations linked to very different hydrological processes (snowmelt or heavy rain runoff floods) are mixed by BM or POT sampling (Hirschboeck et al, 1987;Petrow et al, 2007), making the "identically distributed" hypothesis harder to ensure, and consequently the use of extreme value statistical theory more questionable.…”

Section: Sampling Techniques For Extreme Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling

Garavaglia¹,

Gailhard²,

Paquet³

et al. 2010

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

100

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Abstract. This paper presents a probabilistic model for daily rainfall, using sub-sampling based on meteorological circulation. We classified eight typical but contrasted synoptic situations (weather patterns) for France and surrounding areas, using a "bottom-up" approach, i.e. from the shape of the rain field to the synoptic situations described by geopotential fields. These weather patterns (WP) provide a discriminating variable that is consistent with French climatology, and allows seasonal rainfall records to be split into more homogeneous sub-samples, in term of meteorological genesis.First results show how the combination of seasonal and WP sub-sampling strongly influences the identification of the asymptotic behaviour of rainfall probabilistic models. Furthermore, with this level of stratification, an asymptotic exponential behaviour of each sub-sample appears as a reasonable hypothesis. This first part is illustrated with two daily rainfall records from SE of France.The distribution of the multi-exponential weather patterns (MEWP) is then defined as the composition, for a given season, of all WP sub-sample marginal distributions, weighted by the relative frequency of occurrence of each WP. This model is finally compared to Exponential and Generalized Pareto distributions, showing good features in terms of robustness and accuracy. These final statistical results are computed from a wide dataset of 478 rainfall chronicles spread on the southern half of France. All these data cover the 1953-2005 period.

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Section: Sampling Techniques For Extreme Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling

Garavaglia¹,

Gailhard²,

Paquet³

et al. 2010

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

100

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Hirschboeck (1987) showed that there is linkage between anomalous circulation patterns and severe floods in the western, central, and eastern regions of the United States. Lall and Mann (1995) found evidence of quasi-periodic behaviour in the monthly time series of the GSL, local streamflow, precipitation, and temperature, using the midnight mean temperature (MTM) (Thomson, 1982) and single scattered albedos (SSA) (Ghil and Vautard, 1991).…”

Section: The Great Salt Lake and Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Non-parametric short-term forecasts of the Great Salt Lake using atmospheric indices

2007

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A multivariate, non-parametric model for approximating the non-linear dynamics of hydroclimatic variables is developed and applied for forecasting the volume of the Great Salt Lake (GSL) of Utah. The monthly volume of the GSL is presumed to depend on recent volumes of the lake, and on three atmospheric circulation indices. The indices considered are the Southern oscillation index (SOI), the pacific/North America (PNA) climatic index, and the central North Pacific (CNP) climatic index. Locally weighted polynomials with automatically and locally chosen parameters are used for developing a non-linear forecasting model. Estimated average mutual information (M.I) is used to select appropriate lags across each time series. Iterated and direct multi-step predictions of lake volumes for up to 2 years in the future with and without the atmospheric indices are compared. The atmospheric circulation information can lead to significant improvements in the predictability of the lake.

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“…Throughout the North American continent, the large return period floods are very often caused by a process different from that of the smaller return period floods (Stoddart & Watt, 1970;Diehl & Potter, 1987;Hirschboeck, 1987;Waylen & Woo, 1984) and yet it is these smaller floods, along with the large ones, that are used together to assess the larger design floods in parametric flood frequency analysis. The many drawbacks of parametric frequency analysis make distribution selection a difficult task, as exemplified by the complexity of an expert system for flood frequency analysis (Chow & Watt, 1990).…”

Section: Nonparametric Frequency Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Homogeneous region delineation based on annual flood generation mechanisms

Gingras

Adamowski

1993

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Flood distributions can have unimodal or multimodal densities due to different flood generation mechanisms such as snowmelt and rainfall in the annual flood series. When applying nonparametric frequency analysis to annual flood data from the province of New Brunswick in Canada, unimodal, bimodal and heavy-tailed distribution shapes were found. By grouping basins with similarly-shaped densities on a geographical basis, homogeneous regions were delineated. Regional equations derived for a homogeneous region gave lower integral square errors than those of province-wide equations. Délimitation de régions homogènes basée sur le mécanisme de la genèse de la crue annuelleRésumé Les distributions des crues peuvent avoir des densités unimodales ou multimodales par suite de différents mécanismes tels que la fonte des neiges et la pluie dans la série annuelle des crues. En applicant l'analyse de fréquence non-paramétrique aux crues de la province du Nouveau-Brunswick au Canada, des distributions unimodales, bimodales et avec grande queue ont été découvertes. En groupant des bassins avec des densités de même forme sur une base géographique, des régions homogènes ont été délimitées. Des équations régionales pour une région homogène ont donné des erreurs carrées intégrées plus petites que celles des équations pour la province entière.

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Hydroclimatically-Defined Mixed Distributions in Partial Duration Flood Series

Cited by 74 publications

References 2 publications

Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling

Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling

Non-parametric short-term forecasts of the Great Salt Lake using atmospheric indices

Homogeneous region delineation based on annual flood generation mechanisms

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